The latest findings from the State of Southeast Asia Survey Report, published on Thursday by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute—a prominent think tank based in Singapore—indicate a notable shift in sentiment among Southeast Asian nations regarding their trust in the United States. This year, a higher percentage of respondents expressed a willingness to align with the U.S. over China if compelled to make such a choice, representing a significant reversal from aggregated results from the previous year. However, this shift in trust occurred just before President Donald Trump announced new tariffs that are expected to have a challenging impact on the region, leading experts to caution that current sentiments might differ if surveyed today.

The survey, which was conducted between January 3 and February 15, coincided with President Trump’s inauguration on January 20. A total of 2,023 respondents from 11 Southeast Asian nations—including all ten ASEAN member states and Timor-Leste—were queried on their confidence in the U.S. and China to act in a manner beneficial to global peace, security, prosperity, and governance. The data showed that trust in the U.S. increased from 42.4% last year to 47.2% this year, while distrust saw a decrease from 37.6% to 33.0%. Although trust in the U.S. declined in several countries, including the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam, a majority of respondents in seven out of the ten nations still expressed trust in the U.S. This included countries such as Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. Conversely, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia stood out as exceptions, where distrust in the U.S. surpassed trust.

In a contrasting trend, trust in China saw an increase of 11.8 percentage points—the most significant increase among major powers—rising from 24.8% to 36.6%. Nonetheless, more than half of the ASEAN respondents indicated that they harbored more distrust than trust in China, with only four of the ten countries expressing greater trust: Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, and Thailand.

The survey’s methodology involved five distinct categories of respondents: representatives from academia, think tanks or research organizations; the private sector; civil society, including NGOs and media; government officials; and personnel from regional or international organizations. Each of the ten ASEAN member states was given equal weighting of 10%, reflecting their equal status in ASEAN’s decision-making process. Timor-Leste was included in the survey for the first time, although its responses were not factored into the overall ASEAN scores. Participants rated their trust on a five-point scale—ranging from “no confidence” to “very confident”—with distrust calculated from the “no confidence” and “little confidence” responses and trust derived from the “confident” and “very confident” responses. Should ASEAN members be forced to choose an ally between the U.S. and China, 52.3% of respondents favored aligning with the U.S., a modest increase from 50.5% the previous year when more people leaned towards China for the first time since 2019. However, in Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam, fewer individuals expressed support for the U.S. compared to the previous year.

Ja Ian Chong, an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore and a non-resident scholar with Carnegie China, noted that the shifting preferences reflect the ongoing contention between Washington and Beijing in Southeast Asia, despite the region's desire to remain neutral. He suggested that the Biden Administration’s enhanced engagement in Asia may have contributed to the growing trust in the U.S., even as preparations began for a potential second Trump Administration. “The assumption was that a second Trump presidency would resemble the first, which was not a significant departure from traditional U.S. policy,” Chong commented. He further pointed out that several Southeast Asian economies benefitted from companies relocating to the region amid the trade war with China.

The renewed trust in the U.S. this year may also be attributed to the perception that the Trump Administration would impose restraints on China. Sharon Seah, a senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute’s ASEAN Studies Center and a contributor to the survey, highlighted concerns regarding China’s potential economic and military aggression impacting nations’ interests and sovereignty, which has fueled distrust, particularly in Vietnam and the Philippines. These two countries have had direct confrontations with China over territorial disputes in the contested South China Sea, a pressing geopolitical concern that has overshadowed other regional issues.

Despite the findings, experts urge caution, noting that the results may not entirely capture the current dynamics in U.S. foreign policy. Mark S. Cogan, an associate professor of peace and conflict studies at Kansai Gaidai University in Japan, mentioned that surveys have a limited lifespan, arguing that sentiments reflected in the survey were influenced by Trump’s foreign policy context, which was in a state of flux at the time. He pointed to the adverse effects of Trump’s freeze on foreign aid amid the survey, which have been felt more acutely since recent disasters in Myanmar and Thailand. Cogan expressed concern about the impact of cuts to demining programs in Vietnam and Cambodia that have historically fostered trust between those nations and the U.S., suggesting that rebuilding that trust will be a long-term effort.

The imposition of tariffs announced by Trump, affecting Southeast Asian countries significantly, has raised uncertainties. For instance, Cambodia faces a staggering 49% tariff, Laos 48%, Vietnam 46%, and Myanmar 44%, with Thailand, Indonesia, Brunei, and Malaysia also receiving substantial tariffs exceeding 20%.

Countries like Thailand and Vietnam have previously sought to strengthen their ties with the U.S., but as China deepens its investments in the region and the U.S. adopts punitive trade measures, there is a growing question of whether nations might opt to engage more closely with China instead. Cogan remarked, “While there are certainly opportunities for U.S. involvement, the current foreign policy signals a potential retreat.” Seah cautioned that the long-term effects of Trump’s latest tariffs remain uncertain, as various countries continue to negotiate with the U.S. Under Xi Jinping’s leadership, China is perceived as a more stable and predictable partner compared to the evolving nature of U.S. political dynamics, raising concerns that the U.S. may be perceived as distracted by internal politics and less capable of addressing global issues.

Interestingly, the survey revealed that trust in all major global powers—namely the U.S., China, Japan, the European Union, and India—has risen among Southeast Asian respondents this year. Notably, Japan emerged as the most trusted country, with trust levels increasing from 58.9% to 66.8%. The European Union surpassed the U.S. to become the second most trusted entity, followed by the U.S., China, and India.

Seah attributed Japan’s high trust levels to its long-standing engagement with ASEAN, stating, “Japan has maintained relationships with ASEAN for over 50 years, gradually building its credibility since World War II through consistent interaction in trade, investment, and cultural exchanges.” Cogan suggested the U.S. could learn valuable lessons from Japan’s steady approach, stating, “Influence is often cultivated not through military might, but through building trust, social cohesion, and reputation over time.”