Genuine Parts Company Thrives Amid Tariff Challenges
The global presence of Genuine Parts Company (GPC) provides a distinct advantage in today's competitive tariff landscape. With a broad array of supply lines, manufacturing capabilities, and distribution networks, GPC is well-equipped to supply locally made parts across various markets. As tariffs continue to push prices higher, GPC stands poised to benefit significantly, particularly in the maintenance and do-it-yourself sectors. For instance, with the automobile market likely to experience price increases due to tariffs, many drivers may opt to maintain their existing vehicles rather than purchasing new ones. This shift is expected to elevate repair and maintenance costs, benefiting both DIY enthusiasts and professional garages alike. A similar trend was observed during the COVID pandemic, which positively impacted GPC's stock performance.
GPC operates through a network of subsidiaries, structured into two primary divisions: the Automotive Parts Group and the Industrial Parts Group. The well-known NAPA brand is a part of the Automotive segment, which also includes operations in Canada, Europe, and Australasia. Meanwhile, the Industrial Parts Group encompasses the Motion Industries name. The automotive division boasts an impressive catalog of over 800,000 aftermarket replacement parts, catering to garages, DIYers, and car enthusiasts. On the industrial side, GPC provides more than 18 million replacement parts across a plethora of industries to maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) customers, as well as original equipment manufacturers (OEM). This extensive product range has cemented GPC's status as a key player in the global supply chain.
Established in 1928, Genuine Parts Company has evolved into a $16 billion powerhouse, specializing in the manufacturing and distribution of automotive and industrial replacement parts worldwide. With a presence in 17 countries and over 10,000 locations, GPC employs approximately 63,000 individuals across North America, Europe, and Australasia.
In light of the recent tariff regulations introduced by President Trump, Wall Street analysts are increasingly focusing on 'tariff-protected' stocks that are likely to thrive under these new conditions. Utilizing the TipRanks platform, investors can analyze the broader market sentiment regarding these stocks. Currently, there is a consensus among analysts that the market is experiencing significant turmoil, leading to the need for strategic stock selection to navigate these challenging waters.
The central question remains: will Trump's tariff policies have enduring negative effects, or will they be characterized by a phase of 'short-term pain followed by long-term gain'? As the market grapples with these uncertainties, only time will reveal the outcomes.
Following months of speculation, President Trump rolled out his tariff policy last week, resulting in a dramatic response from the markets. The announcement sparked a wave of sharp sell-offs, instilling a sense of unease among investors and heightening fears of an impending recession.
On the financial front, GPC reported impressive figures for the fourth quarter of 2024, achieving $5.8 billion in revenue, which surpassed expectations by $90 million and represented a 3.3% year-over-year growth. The company also reported a non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $1.61, exceeding forecasts by 6 cents. For the entire year of 2024, GPC recorded total sales of $23.5 billion, reflecting a 1.7% growth compared to the previous year. Looking ahead, the company anticipates full-year revenue growth of between 2% and 4% for 2025, aligning closely with the analyst consensus of 3.15%.
Five-star analyst Greg Melich from Evercore ISI has identified GPC as one of the more resilient companies amid the looming tariff storm. He emphasizes the company's ability to pass on rising costs in both its automotive and industrial segments, suggesting that earnings could potentially rise as a result of the tariffs. Despite being somewhat cautious with his estimate, noting the stock trading at approximately 14 times its depressed C26 EPS, Melich believes that much of the risk associated with fluctuating consumer income and tariffs is already reflected in the stock price.
Melich further elaborated that GPC is well-positioned to capitalize on market share losses from its competitors, as closed stores could lead independent garages to gravitate towards NAPA. The company's restructuring efforts are expected to yield additional savings of $100-125 million by 2026, which would enhance profitability. Melich maintains an Outperform rating on GPC, with a price target of $135, indicating a potential 15.5% increase in value over the next 12 months.
Analysts' consensus suggests a Moderate Buy rating for GPC stock, with seven reviews comprising four Buys, two Holds, and one Sell. Currently, the stock trades around $116.81, with an average target price of $131.83, signaling a potential upside of approximately 13% over the coming year.
The second stock under discussion is TJX Companies, a well-established entity in the discount retail sector. As the parent company of TJ Maxx, Marshalls, HomeGoods, and HomeSense, TJX operates over 5,000 stores across nine countries and three continents, boasting a 47-year history in the retail business.
Known for its discount department stores, TJX provides consumers with access to high-quality goods at significant markdowns, typically ranging from 20% to 60% compared to traditional retailers. The company's success in the off-price retail domain is attributed to its frugal operational model and strategic procurement of merchandise, allowing it to capitalize on excess inventory from suppliers and overstock from full-price retailers.
In its latest fiscal report for 4Q25, TJX generated $16.35 billion in revenue, slightly down by 0.4% year-over-year but exceeding expectations by $110 million. The company's EPS of $1.23 beat forecasts by 6 cents per share. Over the full fiscal year 2025, ending on February 1, total revenue reached $56.4 billion, reflecting a 4% increase from the previous year. Notably, TJX experienced a 5% rise in consolidated comparable store sales for Q4, driven by a growth in customer transactions.
This trend may play a crucial role in how TJX navigates the challenges posed by tariffs. In an economic downturn, consumers often seek more affordable shopping options, potentially increasing foot traffic to discount retailers. Citi analyst Paul Lejuez highlights this point, in addition to TJX's ability to procure products at competitive prices, as factors that could bolster the stock's performance in the future. He states, âTariffs are likely to create substantial disruption in the market, increasing the availability of products at attractive prices for off-price retailers. Additionally, as consumer spending tightens, more shoppers may turn to discount options for value.â
Lejuez rates TJX stock as a Buy, assigning a price target of $140, suggesting a potential 12-month gain of 14.5% for the retailer. Currently, the stock holds a Strong Buy consensus rating, supported by 19 recent analyst reviews, with an overwhelming majority of 18 Buys and only one Hold. The stock is trading at $122.16, with an average target price of $141.41, indicating an upside of 16% in the next year.
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. The content is intended for informational purposes only, and investors are advised to conduct their own analysis before making any investment decisions.