SEOUL, South Korea — In a significant development in South Korea’s political landscape, the nation is set to hold a snap presidential election on June 3. This decision comes in the wake of the ousting of President Yoon Suk Yeol, who was removed from office due to his controversial imposition of martial law late last year. The announcement was made by acting President Han Duck-soo just four days after the Constitutional Court unanimously ruled to remove Yoon from his position. According to South Korean law, this ruling necessitates a presidential election within 60 days. The winner of the upcoming election will serve a full five-year term, setting the stage for a crucial political transition.

The political atmosphere in South Korea is currently characterized by deep polarization, which is expected to significantly influence the upcoming election. Analysts predict a two-way showdown primarily between Yoon’s People Power Party (PPP) and its main rival, the Democratic Party (DP), which currently holds a majority in the National Assembly. The path ahead for the People Power Party is likely to be challenging as it seeks to rebuild public confidence and mend the severe internal divisions that arose from Yoon’s brief and controversial tenure.

A critical point of focus will be whether the conservative faction of the People Power Party can regroup and present a strong candidate capable of competing against the Democratic Party's likely candidate, Lee Jae-myung. Observers have identified Lee as the clear front-runner for the presidency. In the coming weeks, South Korea’s political parties are expected to initiate primary elections to determine their presidential nominees. Within the Democratic Party, Lee is seen as a powerful leader with minimal internal opposition, having narrowly lost the previous presidential election to Yoon in 2022. He has since led the party through significant crises, including a confrontation with Yoon's administration that culminated in the impeachment of the former president.

As the election approaches, approximately ten politicians from the People Power Party are anticipated to vie for the presidential nomination. Yoon’s decision to enact martial law—bringing military troops into the streets of Seoul—has left a lasting impact on the party’s reputation, even though the party itself was not directly responsible for his actions. Many reform-minded members openly criticized Yoon’s decision and voted for his impeachment, leading to tensions with the party's traditionalist faction that remained loyal to him. Despite these divisions, Yoon maintains a base of diehard supporters who frequently hold large rallies, viewing him as a victim of a politically motivated opposition that has allegedly manipulated the electoral process to gain power.

“South Korea’s conservative party faces significant disadvantages heading into the upcoming election. Two months is a short time to unify the base, moderates, and a conspiracy-driven fringe around a single candidate,” commented Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.

Current leadership in the People Power Party is predominantly comprised of Yoon loyalists, which could exacerbate internal divisions and hinder the party’s chances in the election, according to Choi Jin, director of the Seoul-based Institute of Presidential Leadership. Among the leading contenders for the party’s nomination, Labor Minister Kim Moon Soo is viewed as the most pro-Yoon candidate. Both Kim and Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo were opposed to Yoon’s impeachment, whereas former party leader Han Dong-hoon and senior lawmaker Ahn Cheol-soo advocated for his removal from office. Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon also remains a candidate, albeit with an unclear stance.

Experts suggest that Yoon will likely use his influence to support pro-Yoon figures during the nomination process and within party leadership to secure a protective stance as he faces potential criminal trials. Yoon was charged with rebellion in January, and now that he has lost his presidential immunity, he could face additional charges, including abuse of power.

“The People Power Party will need to nominate someone who appeals to the public, especially moderates, rather than simply focusing on winning the party’s primaries,” advised Duyeon Kim, a senior analyst at the Center for a New American Security in Washington. She pointed out that young voters in their 20s and 30s are likely to be pivotal in determining the outcome of the election.

On the other side, opposition leader Lee Jae-myung, who has previously held positions as a provincial governor and city mayor, is regarded by supporters as a populist reformer. However, detractors label him a demagogue who has polarized South Korean politics by demonizing his opponents. Lee currently faces five ongoing trials related to corruption and other criminal charges. Should he ascend to the presidency, these legal battles may halt due to presidential immunity.

Yoon has consistently accused Lee’s Democratic Party of leveraging its parliamentary majority to obstruct his administration’s efforts, leading to the impeachment of high-ranking officials and significant budget cuts. Yoon characterized his imposition of martial law as a desperate measure to gain public support in his fight against perceived corruption within Lee’s party.

“Lee Jae-myung has many detractors among the South Korean public who believe he nearly dismantled the government for his personal gain, using the legislature to push Yoon to the brink and framing his own legal troubles as political persecution,” remarked Easley.

“Lee’s adept navigation of party politics, including purging progressive members seen as disloyal, has positioned him as the de facto nominee for the Democratic Party, placing him in a prime position for the presidency,” he added.