In recent months, the political and economic landscape of the United States has become increasingly turbulent, largely due to President Donald Trumps implementation of tariffs against numerous countries. This situation has provoked widespread concern among both experts and consumers, sparking fears about the possibility of an impending recession. Claudia Sahm, the chief economist at New Century Advisors, expressed her apprehensions, stating to TIME, It will be difficult for the U.S. to avoid a recession if the tariffs stay at the level that's been announced.

Sahm elaborated on the various factors compounding this economic anxiety, noting, You put the tariffs together with the downsizing of the federal government, the cutting of the grants that go to government-adjacent sectors, and then shutting down immigration into the country. Those all are things that will weigh on [economic] growth. These changes contribute to a climate of uncertainty that is now permeating the market.

The administrations handling of tariffs has drawn significant criticism from economists, who argue that the approach has been both abrupt and perplexing. While addressing concerns about unfair trade practices that disadvantage U.S. manufacturers and workers, critics highlight that these tariffs have inadvertently raised questions about the stability of the U.S. market. John M. Veitch, dean of the School of Business and Management at Notre Dame de Namur University, pointed out that exports to other countries and imports into the U.S. from other countries are going to decline because there's higher levels of uncertainty.

In addition to affecting international trade, the conversation surrounding tariffs also influences consumer confidencea key indicator of how everyday people perceive the current and future state of the economy. Recently, the consumer confidence index registered a decline of 7.2 points in March, marking the fourth consecutive month of falling confidence. This assessment was conducted prior to the announcement of Trumps new reciprocal tariffs, but it serves as a strong indicator of general consumer sentiment in the U.S.

On April 9, the newly announced tariffs are set to take effect. These tariffs add to previous levies on steel, aluminum, and imported vehicles and car components that were established earlier this year. Understanding what constitutes a recession is crucial in this context. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines a recession as a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months. Should such a recession become particularly severe or prolonged, it could escalate into a depressiona state marked by a GDP decline of more than 10%. The U.S. has faced multiple recessions since the dawn of the 21st century, including the dot-com crash, the Great Recession from 2007 to 2009, and the economic fallout triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. The last notable depression, known as the Great Depression, took place in the 1930s, resulting in a staggering 30% contraction of the economy over four years, which lasted a decade.

The question on many minds is whether a recession is imminent this year. While the U.S. economy currently exhibits signs of strengthwith a historically low unemployment rate hovering around 4%there are rising concerns among investors and policymakers alike. Many have urged Trump to reconsider his tariffs, fearing that they could exacerbate the situation. On Monday, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, cautioned shareholders about the potential inflationary effects of the tariffs and their role in increasing the likelihood of an economic downturn. Moreover, billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, who recently endorsed Trump for the 2024 election, issued a warning on X, highlighting that these tariffs could undermine confidence in the U.S. as a reliable trading partner.

Three economic experts who spoke with TIME echoed these sentiments. Sahm emphasized that the tariffs, while aimed at boosting U.S. manufacturing, would come at a significant cost and noted, It's going to take years to see this vision through. She elaborated that, Companies don't build manufacturing facilities in days. During a press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump acknowledged the complexities involved in building a robust manufacturing base, stating, You [have] got to build a thing called the factory. You have to build your energy. You have to do a lot of things. He added that the U.S. would support other countries in developing their own power plants to foster competition with China and other nations.

The expansive nature of these tariffs is set to increase the cost of a wide array of goods. Sahm explained, It's very difficult to escape the tariff because it's going to be applied to so many countriesthe magnitude of it is so high that businesses, to some extent, are going to be in a position that they have to pass it on to consumers, because these numbers are just big. Inflation rates reached as high as 7% during the pandemic in 2021, but they have since moderated, currently estimated at around 3% for 2024, although this too may be affected by the new tariffs. Experts warn that sectors such as the automobile industry, which heavily relies on an international supply chain, are particularly vulnerable to these changes. Veitch also noted that products such as smartphones, computers, and other technologies that depend on foreign chips or semiconductors are likely to see price increases.

The immediate effects of the tariffs are expected to manifest quickly, with potential repercussions lasting for one to two years. Brown University economics professor ebnem Kalemli-zcan anticipates that any recession triggered by these tariffs will likely not extend beyond a year, while Veitch speculates that the impact could range from six months to a year. Notably, shifts in consumer behavior may occur swiftly. People decide they're not going to take that vacation. People decide they can't afford a new house, Veitch explained. These immediate choices may take some time to reflect in broader economic indicators.

What about the job market? With the threat of recession looming, businesses may scale back on investments and hiring, leading to a tighter job market. Kalemli-zcan highlighted that those who are fortunate enough to stay employed may find fewer options available to them. It'd be a bad time to graduate, Veitch remarked, suggesting that young professionals entering the workforce could face significant challenges. He described the current environment as one where we may be entering what he terms a public goods recession, referencing the disruption of social services previously provided by the federal government through the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). This agency has laid off over 280,000 federal workers across various sectors, including the Department of Education and the National Park Service, while also slashing funding for vital research grants associated with public health initiatives targeting sexual and racial minorities.

As funding for grants diminishes, current students face limited opportunities for research participation, and prospective students may find it increasingly difficult to secure financial aid. Veitch expressed his concerns, stating, It seems like they're being dismantled at a time when one would think that the people who are most vulnerable to losing jobs, are losing their jobs. He concluded that other economic policies have created an urgent need for a robust social safety net.

While the tariffs have been hailed by some as a potential pathway to generating domestic job opportunities, experts caution that even if such jobs arise, they are more likely to be in highly automated environments. Veitch pointed out, The face of manufacturing in America has changed. It's not an assembly line with tons of people turning screws. It's a highly automated, robotic assembly line that doesn't employ many people. This reality raises critical questions about whether the administration is targeting an area that has seen increased productivity in the past two decades at the expense of workforce employment.