The lead-up to the 2024 US presidential election is shaping up to be a pivotal moment not just for Washington, but the whole world as well. Among those closely watching the unfolding events is Nick Jarmoszuk, an industrialist based in Lorain, Ohio. For him, the trade war initiated by President Donald Trump against China could not have come at a more critical time. Jarmoszuk, who is the founder and chief executive of Skylift, a small but significant company that manufactures equipment for electricity utility companies, believes that the longstanding trade imbalance between the United States and other countries has been a pressing issue that needed urgent attention. "Americas trade imbalance with the rest of the world was something thats been festering for a long time, and its a good thing to address, he remarked. The longer you leave it, the tougher it is to fix."

Importantly, Jarmoszuk feels insulated from the severe tariffs imposed on China, which have reached a staggering 145 percent. Because Skylift sources most of its components from American manufacturers, he is optimistic that if more businesses followed his model, the US economic landscape would significantly improve. His sentiments resonate with many in Lorain, a community that has suffered through economic downturns yet remains hopeful that Trump's protectionist policies might spark a renaissance in US manufacturing.

Local business owner Belinda Durm, who operates a used car showroom, echoes Jarmoszuk's sentiments. The companies that produce in foreign countries should have to pay for taking jobs away from the US, she asserts. I think the stuff should be made here. As the trade war unfolds, its repercussions are felt in many sectors, creating a mix of anxiety and optimism among local residents.

The US economy is still grappling with the volatility seen in global markets over the past week. This turbulence was fueled by President Trumps strong desire to restructure a global trading system he claims has consistently favored foreign nations at the expense of American interests. Following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs on various trading partners, a drastic decline in global equity valuations was observed. Investors, lawmakers, and high-profile Republican donors reacted strongly, prompting the suspension of these tariffs after significant backlash.

Despite the chaos, communities like Lorain, which predominantly supported Trump in the previous election, continue to express their faith in the president's vision. The complaints you get are from Wall Street, which wants instant gratification, said Nick Jarmoszuk Jr., the CFO of Skylift. We dont. Many local residents see economic possibilities arising from the trade war. Alex Seda, a manager at OReilly Auto Parts, predicts a surge in sales as tariffs on auto imports will likely lead to elevated prices for new vehicles. People will have to keep their old cars on the road for longer and for that theyll need more spare parts, he stated.

Historically, few cities encapsulate the narrative of America's industrial decline better than Lorain. Nestled on the southwestern shore of Lake Erie, Lorain was once a vibrant hub for shipbuilding, steel production, and automobile manufacturing, situated squarely in the heart of the Midwestern industrial landscape. However, the last four decades have seen a significant decline as companies shifted their manufacturing overseas and outsourced their supply chains. The decline began in earnest when the shipbuilding yards shuttered their doors in 1983, and by 2005, Ford had closed its assembly plant. The closure of US Steels Tubular Operations in 2020 and Republic Steel's rolling mill in 2016 only compounded the problem.

As the industrial base eroded, the city faced severe population decline and urban decay, leading to poverty rates that far exceed the national average. Currently, the largest employer in the area is Mercy Health, which operates a major hospital. The political landscape in Lorain reflects a broader trend; voters in regions like this have shown overwhelming support for Trump, who secured victories in key industrial states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsinareas that have similarly suffered from manufacturing exodus. Many Republican supporters advocate for the president's stance that protecting the US market could lure companies back home.

Yet, skepticism exists. Kent Savage, the CEO of Velocity Group, an engineering and manufacturing firm located just two hours south of Lorain, suggested that the potential outcomes of the trade war could lead to a more equitable system than what existed prior to what he refers to as liberation day. However, skepticism also runs deep among some residents. Mayor Jack Bradley of Lorain, for example, expressed concerns based on the unfulfilled promises made during Trumps first term, including a 25 percent tariff on imported steel. Although Trump claimed that this would spur the revival of the Republic Steel plant, which once employed over 12,000 workers, the reality has been disappointingly different.

We were told that, based on these tariffs, Republic Steel would be restarting production in Lorain and that 1,000 steel industry jobs would come back. That never happened, Bradley lamented. The mills closure in 2022 served as a stark reminder of past failures, leaving the rusting structure to overshadow the city as an eyesore, according to the mayor. After a recent discussion with Jaime Vigil, president of Republic Steel Corp, Bradley was informed that there were no plans to revive operations at the long-closed plant.

The mayor, whose political affiliation is Democratic, conveys a deep concern that the trade war may do more harm than good to the local economy. He worries particularly about the implications for Ford, which operates an assembly plant in nearby Avon Lake. It will affect supply chains and increase costs, so factories will produce less and lay off their employees, he warned.

Several businesses in Lorain are feeling the pressure from the ongoing disruption. PC Campana, a company that produces alloyed cored wire used in steelmaking, faces particular challenges as it relies on components from China that are now subject to steep tariffs. Don Scott, the division manager, voiced concerns about the effects of the tariff crisis, stating, The whole world has been upside down since Covid-19, and now we have the tariff crisis. Scott is skeptical that tariffs can lead to a manufacturing revival, asserting that the exodus of jobs over the last 50 years cannot be reversed overnight. It takes years, he insists.

Others like Joe Meno, head of JFL Enterprisesa Cleveland-based company specializing in toys and birthday items for major retailersare reeling from the negative impact of the tariff announcements. With 95 percent of his inventory sourced from Chinese suppliers, he is faced with difficult choices. You have to make really difficult decisionsdo I want to bring in inventory thats going to be unprofitable to sell? Or do I want to risk being out of stock for my customers? Meno said. Its hard to imagine a world where someone who bought a toy car for $5.99 is now going to buy it for $12.99.

Even businesses that are in favor of tariffs are apprehensive about potential repercussions. Jarmoszuk Jr. indicated that manufacturers dependent on Chinese components are now scrambling to find American-made alternatives. Youll have more demand chasing a limited domestic supply, he warned, which could lead to rising prices. Similarly, Savage expressed concern that many electric components integral to his products come from China, with few feasible options for sourcing them domestically or from other countries. He added that should China cease to be a supplier, the gaps in supply will likely result in shortages and inflated prices for consumers.

Despite the potential pitfalls, Jarmoszuk Jr. remains optimistic. He believes that other countries will ultimately need to dismantle the trade barriers that hinder the competitiveness of US goods. He asserts that the tariffs are a necessary step toward fostering new supply chains that could return to American soil. The disruption would be temporary, he claimed, likening the process to chemotherapy for a patient. Its a strong drug, but its going to make you healthy in the end.