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The following essay is based on a candid conversation with Beth Pratt, a 29-year-old baker and small-business owner based in Denver, Colorado. The content has been edited for brevity and clarity.

As a classically trained pastry chef, I initially carved out a niche for myself in a bustling restaurant group. However, over the last five years, I came to an unsettling realization: I despised my job. The monotony of working for someone else drained my passion and creativity as a baker.

In a quest for independence, I decided to leverage social mediaspecifically TikTok. To my surprise, my content gained traction almost instantly, going viral within the first month. Last May, I posted a video that posed a simple yet powerful question: Would people buy my cookies? The response was overwhelmingly positive, reaffirming my decision to take this leap.

By December, I officially launched my cookie business, offering a half dozen of my unique creations. My menu features five core flavors alongside a rotating seasonal option that keeps things exciting for my customers. Each box of six cookies is priced at $27, and I have successfully managed to sell approximately 3,000 cookies each monthan encouraging figure for a new venture.

To add a personal touch, I have given my cookies playful names. Some of the fan favorites include the whimsical Snarky Snickerdoodle, the cheeky Chocolate Fuckin' Chip, and the spirited Oatmeal Raisin' Hell. These quirky names help to establish a fun brand identity that resonates well with my audience.

However, as my business began to thrive, I quickly encountered significant challenges, particularly regarding rising costs. The first blow came from a dramatic increase in the prices of essential ingredients, notably eggs and chocolate. For example, in December, I could purchase a case of 180 eggs for less than $100; by mid-February, that same case shot up to $145a staggering increase. Similarly, the cost of chocolate has soared by 60% since December, contributing to a rise in my ingredient expenses from 18.5% to about 23% of my total costs. For a small business like mine, such a leap is monumental.

Compounding these challenges are the tariffs imposed during the Trump administration, which have created a sense of uncertainty in the market. It feels as if my business is caught in a storm as I navigate the ramifications of tariffs on imported goods. I rely on a company named Pouch.me, based in Shanghai, for my cookie packaging. I appreciate their high-quality, customizable bags, which are significantly more affordable than domestic options. For instance, when I order 3,000 bags, they cost only 52 cents each. Recently, I bought a larger quantity of 6,000 bags at a reduced price of 38 cents each.

Recently, I reached out to Pouch.me regarding the potential impact of tariffs on pricing. They assured me that, to date, their prices remain unchanged; however, they cautioned that increases could be forthcoming.

In light of the tariffs, I explored alternative suppliers within the United States. Unfortunately, I quickly discovered that many American suppliers are geared towards larger corporations and are less accommodating to small businesses like mine. The most competitive quote I received was $1.02 per bag, with a minimum order of 6,000 bags per design, which simply exceeded my budget. Another supplier quoted me a staggering $10,000 minimum order, a commitment I couldn't possibly make.

As I grapple with these rising costs and the uncertainty surrounding my business, I've contemplated placing a bulk order with Pouch.me to safeguard against future price hikes. Yet, I hesitate; the unpredictability of tariffs leaves me unsure of the best course of action. I find myself caught in a dilemma: If I stock up now, will I later regret it if prices stabilize? It's a gamble that weighs heavily on my mind.

Quality is paramount to me, and I take immense pride in the products I offer. However, I worry about the potential necessity to switch to less expensive ingredients if prices continue to escalate. I've been transparent with my followers on TikTok and Instagram about the possibility of increasing the price of my cookie boxes due to rising costs, and they have been immensely supportive. Nevertheless, I would prefer to keep my prices stable and find alternative means to absorb the cost increases.

Ultimately, I remain hopeful that I won't have to compromise on the quality of my cookies or pass additional costs onto my customers. But the future is uncertain, and only time will tell how this situation unfolds.