Maple Leafs’ Biggest X-Factor for 2025 Playoffs Is Matthew Knies

It’s all but likely that the Toronto Maple Leafs will face the Ottawa Senators in the playoffs, reigniting the Battle of Ontario. While the playoffs haven’t been kind to the Toronto Maple Leafs in the past, this season is a fresh start to try and change their misfortunes. With a new voice in Craig Berube behind the bench, a new system that prioritizes defense and limiting second chances and goaltending that can carry the team forward, there are a lot of positives this time around. Over the last few postseasons, there has been one player that has started to emerge as a key contributor and potential x-factor and his play this season may have solidified that for the Maple Leafs. The play of Matthew Knies has consistently improved ever since he joined the team late in 2022-23. His postseason play against the Tampa Bay Lightning and Boston Bruins has shown that his skillset and style of play could be the difference maker at this time of the season. He’s been a difference maker in the past and he’ll be a big x-factor this time around again. Knies Making a Living in Tough Areas Knies has been a big revelation for the team as he has been a big part of their success to this point. He has been a staple on the top-line with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, flirting with the 30-goal mark as he has 29 in only his second season. Needless to say, there hasn’t been a sophomore slump, but a steady progression in Knies’ game. What he brings to the table is more noticeable in the postseason. Which is why he’ll be playing a significant role given his ability to thrive in the tough areas on the ice. He’s becoming a fixture as a net-front presence, taking the sight lines away from goaltenders and using his positioning to break free from defenders and using his hands in tight to score timely goals. Matthew Knies of the Toronto Maple Leafs celebrates with William Nylander #88 after scoring the game winning goal against the Boston Bruins to win the game 2-1 in overtime of Game Five of the First Round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) This season when he’s on the ice at five-on-five (min.1000 minutes), Knies ranks in the top-20 with a high danger chances for percentage of 57%. Looking at his individual high danger chances, he has the third most with 99, behind only Edmonton Oilers forward Zach Hyman and New York Islanders forward Anders Lee. Considering how he’s on the top line, he has 59.4 goals for percentage against elite level competition, showing his impact against some of the best in the league. Those are some good numbers given that he makes his living in the high danger areas on the ice. However, it’s his ability to battle down low and along the boards that allows him to excel in the important areas on the ice and make him a threat. When it comes to the playoffs, the style of play and skill in those areas becomes even more important and crucial as those battles mean much more. Related: Knies brings that consistently as his intensity, drive and all-around play in those areas can be a major difference maker as it allows him and his line to succeed. That alone is going to be tough for the Senators to contain. Physical Mindset Setting In For Playoffs Having the right mindset heading into the postseason is always important as a lot is at stake. Knies is already showing and getting into that playoff mindset and his comments from their loss to the Florida Panthers said it all as the team overall lacked any sort of pushback or physical play. “We were a little bit soft in some areas,” Knies said according to Sportsnet’s Luke Fox. “So, we’re gonna have to learn to do that when it comes to playoff time.” Matthew Knies, Toronto Maple Leafs (Photo by Kevin Sousa/NHLI via Getty Images) His words seemed to spark the team as they had a strong bounce back effort against the Lightning where the top line made a difference in all situations, especially Knies. He was physically engaging and finished the night with the game-winning goal in overtime to complete the hat trick. He’s already thinking ahead on how the team should play and they kept true to his words. The Senators play a physical brand of hockey, so Knies is definitely well equipped to match that style. This style of play truly needs to carry over as that alone has impacted the Maple Leafs as they’ve been their own worst enemy at times. With the Senators looking like their opponent, they have to match that intensity, physical play and show that hard-working mindset. Early on in his career, Knies has shown that drive but also has shown up in some big moments. He has seven points in 14 playoff games, but he has been a part of some important moments, notably John Tavares’ clinching goal against the Lightning and a critical Game 5 overtime winner against the Bruins. Knies had two straight postseasons with big moments and plays. A third could be on the horizon where he could be at the forefront. Related: Maple Leafs’ Knies Playing Towards Big Pay Day Given what he has shown this season and from past playoffs, Knies is going to be relied on to be an important producer in the postseason. His play in front of the net, physical presence and skill set to compliment the top line is the kind of play that has been missing for some time. The Maple Leafs have that now as he’s going to be a big x-factor for the postseason. Statistics from Natural Stat Trick and Puck IQ.