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In a strategic shift that reflects the changing geopolitical landscape, the United Kingdom is poised to expand its military presence in the Arctic and High North. This development comes amid growing competition for territorial control and resources in these increasingly accessible regions, as highlighted in the forthcoming government defence review.

Sources familiar with the review indicate that it will advocate for substantial investments in advanced technologies, particularly drones, in response to a new era characterized by heightened state conflict. This initiative underscores the UKs commitment to a Nato first approach to defense, which prioritizes national security in the Euro-Atlantic area while fulfilling obligations to its allies.

John Healey, the UK Defence Secretary, has previously criticized the past Conservative governments focus on the Indo-Pacific, emphasizing the urgency of addressing threats closer to home. The comprehensive review is being spearheaded by an independent team led by former Nato Secretary-General Lord George Robertson, tasked with assessing the threats facing the UK and determining the necessary capabilities to counter them effectively.

The impact of former US President Donald Trumps security policy shift has also played a significant role in shaping this review. His administration's intentions to reduce American military resources in Europe have led to concerns among UK officials regarding their own military readiness and strategic positioning.

The government has faced internal debates about the timing of this critical document, which is expected to be unveiled in the first half of 2025. Described by military officials as part of an iterative process, the review has gone through multiple revisions, with the latest version submitted to ministers on March 10.

As the review zeroes in on the Atlantic region, it will recommend that the UK enhance its military operations in the High North, particularly in the Arctic. The melting ice in these areas has opened new shipping routes, making previously inaccessible natural resourcessuch as oil, gas, minerals, and rare earth metalsmuch more attainable. This development has intensified the competition for influence from various global powers, including the United States, Russia, China, and nations in Northern Europe.

Already, the UK has expressed significant concerns about Russias increasing military activity in the Arctic. In a proactive move, Healey visited Norway in February to discuss collaborative efforts to bolster security in the region.

Additionally, the Trump administration had raised eyebrows when it pressured Denmark to relinquish control over Greenland, a strategic Arctic territory, leading to diplomatic tensions.

The recent deployment of snowmobiles by the Ministry of Defence (MoD) to the Arctic Circle has been interpreted by industry experts as an indication of the UKs military strategy moving forward. Ed Arnold, a senior research fellow specializing in European security at the Royal United Services Institute, noted that there is growing pressure on the UK to enhance its military capabilities in the High North, especially from Nordic allies who are concerned about the evolving stance of the United States.

These allies are looking to the UK to establish a more pronounced military presence in the region, as it is uniquely positioned to provide essential assets in intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and anti-submarine warfare, especially in light of the USs shift towards the Indo-Pacific.

The Defence Review is expected to reinforce the need for the UK to increase investment in the Royal Navy compared to the British Army, as regional allies have indicated a preference for enhancing naval and air capabilities rather than land forces.

As part of the review, there is anticipated confirmation that the UK will continue its investment in the Global Combat Air Programme, a collaborative initiative with Italy and Japan aimed at developing a sixth-generation stealth fighter jet.

While Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has pledged to raise defence spending from 2.3% to 2.5% of GDP by 2027, which equates to an additional 6 billion annually, this commitment still falls short of the 2.65% sought by the military leadership, highlighting ongoing budgeting challenges.

Furthermore, the review is likely to stress the importance of balancing traditional military assetssuch as ships, aircraft, and ground vehicleswith the development of innovative technologies, including unmanned systems and advanced maritime capabilities.

It is also expected to prompt further enhancement of the cadet forces and reserves and to strengthen the Ministry of Defence's connections with trained veterans, ensuring preparedness in times of conflict.

The government is advocating a whole-of-society approach, with some officials suggesting that the curriculum in schools should incorporate more emphasis on democratic values, national security, and resilience.

Another critical focus of the review will be on reorganizing the UK's cyber personnel, which span various agencies including GCHQ and the Ministry of Defences national cyber force, ensuring a cohesive and efficient operational framework.

The intention is not to create a unified command akin to the US Space Force but rather to streamline and rationalize existing structures to prevent overlap and facilitate a more effective recruitment process.

There are calls among defence advocates for the review to be released ahead of key events, including a UK-EU summit on May 19, which could pave the way for a new defence pact, or to coincide with a Nato meeting on June 24.

However, some officials prefer a later release in June to align with the Treasurys spending review and a broader security strategy being developed under the guidance of the national security adviser, Jonathan Powell.

While the Ministry of Defence has declined to engage in speculation regarding the review, it reaffirmed that the document is intended to rigorously evaluate the current threats and capabilities necessary to navigate the complex challenges and opportunities of the 21st century. The review will be published as soon as it is ready.

Additional reporting by Helen Warrell.