French fries, a beloved comfort food cherished by both children and adults alike, may soon be facing a future where they become a rare luxury rather than an everyday indulgence. While the United States is a major producer of potatoes, yielding approximately 44 billion pounds annually, theres a significant component of this culinary delight that remains largely imported: cooking oil. Specifically, the canola and soybean oils that are pivotal for achieving the perfect fry are predominantly sourced from abroad, particularly from Canada, which is now under threat from President Donald Trumps sweeping tariffs.

These tariffs, which start at a hefty 10% and affect a wide range of countriesfrom China to Sri Lankaare causing widespread concern among businesses and consumers alike. Economists are sounding alarms over the potential rise in prices across various sectors, including automobiles, clothing, electronics, and even food items like vanilla and, significantly, french fries. Canada, as a key trading partner, is particularly impacted due to the vast volume of goods that cross its border with the U.S., a staggering $762 billion in annual trade. Currently, there is a 25% tariff imposed on all Canadian goods that are not covered by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), affecting essential commodities like steel and aluminum. Although a recent 25% tariff on compliant goods was initially put on hold, the uncertainty surrounding additional tariffs looms large.

French fries, a staple in the American diet, are prepared using a two-step frying process: they are first blanched to achieve a soft interior and then fried again at a higher temperature for that coveted crispy exterior. Restaurants have a particular fondness for fries not only for their speed of cooking but also for their impressive profit margins compared to other menu items such as meat and vegetables. The U.S. Canola Association indicates that around 69% of the canola oil used in the nation is imported, with approximately 96% of that coming from Canada. This dependency is further highlighted by the fact that the U.S. imports about $1.7 billion worth of frozen french fries from Canada each year, with domestic production failing to keep pace for the last five years.

Codi Bates, the owner of The Burger Stand in Lawrence, Kansas, underscores the financial strain these tariffs could impose. She spends around $32,760 yearly on canola oil, which is crucial for frying not only french fries but also fried chicken and fish. With her restaurant consuming about 630 pounds of cooking oil weekly, a price increase would significantly erode her profit margins and leave her uncertain about the future.

The American appetite for fries is substantial: one-third of all potatoes grown in the U.S. are transformed into frozen fries. A recent analysis revealed that during 2023, fries were ordered on nearly 14% of all visits to restaurants across the country. The origins of french fries are deeply rooted in culinary history, with restaurants traditionally using tallow or rendered beef fat to achieve that distinct flavor, a practice that was replaced in the 1990s due to shifting health perceptions and a growing focus on alternative oils like canola.

As the cost of cooking oil has already surged approximately 50% since 2020, the ongoing tariffs threaten to create a ripple effect throughout the food industry. To illustrate the potential impact, the price of McDonald's fries skyrocketed by 134% from $1.79 in 2019 to $4.19 in 2024, according to an analysis by TheStreet. Restaurateurs are left with limited options when faced with these rising costs: they can either absorb the losses, increase menu prices, or alter their ingredients altogether.

In the face of economic challenges, some chefs are reconsidering the use of animal fats, which have gained popularity among culinary professionals. However, this shift is not a straightforward solution; animal fats such as tallow are generally more expensive, costing between $60 to $119 for a 35-pound bucket, compared to $40 for the equivalent amount of canola or soybean oil. As a result, a transition to animal fats could elevate fries from a common side dish to a luxury item.

Notably, some restaurants are exploring innovative methods to stretch their oil usage. Samantha Fore, who runs Tuk Tuk Snack Shop in Lexington, Kentucky, utilizes a dual-tank system to keep her fryers operational, which helps prolong the life of the oil while minimizing waste. Such practices may become essential as the price of canola oil escalates due to tariffs, which could inadvertently cause a spike in domestic oil prices as well.

Catherine Mendelsohn from Sunnyside Restaurant Group is optimistic, stating that her restaurant's filtering system mitigates the impact of rising costs. Although her establishments spend around $10,000 annually on canola oil at each location, she remains confident in absorbing any cost increases. In contrast, Demetri Tsolakis, CEO of Xenia Greek Hospitality, is considering alternative oils like sugarcane to maintain quality while managing costs despite the higher price point.

As the food industry grapples with these changes, the long-term implications of such tariffs remain uncertain. While some experts predict significant economic ramifications if these tariffs persist, they acknowledge that the evolving landscape of food supply and pricing is complex and unpredictable. Ultimately, America's love for french fries may face challenges that redefine their place within the American culinary landscape, potentially transforming them from a beloved staple into a rare indulgence.

Corey Mintz, a food reporter with a focus on the intersection of food, economics, and labor, sheds light on these pressing issues in the restaurant industry. He is also the author of the book "The Next Supper: The End Of Restaurants As We Knew Them, And What Comes After."