As Easter approaches, many Americans find their celebrations incomplete without the delightful taste of chocolate. Traditional symbols of the holiday, such as chocolate bunnies, eggs, and various sweets, fill Easter baskets and are hidden in plastic eggs for festive hunts. However, a significant concern looms this year: the skyrocketing prices of cocoa, a vital ingredient in chocolate, coupled with former President Donald Trumps tariffs on imports, are expected to drive up the cost of chocolate candy.

Each year, Americans indulge in billions of dollars worth of sweets during what the National Confectioners Association refers to as the big four candy seasons: Valentines Day, Easter, Halloween, and the winter holidays. In fact, consumers spent an impressive $5.4 billion on Easter candy alone last year, highlighting the holiday's deep-rooted traditions of sweet indulgence.

The primary reason for the rising prices of chocolate candy can be traced back to a significant increase in cocoa costs. Cocoa, the core ingredient for chocolate, has seen its price surge dramatically over the past year. This alarming trend has been primarily driven by climate-related challenges faced by cocoa farmers in West Africa, where approximately 70% of the worlds cocoa is harvested. In 2023, these farmers encountered severe weather conditions, including prolonged droughts and plant diseases, which devastated cocoa production.

Analyses indicate a staggering cocoa deficit exceeding 400,000 tons, a shortfall that has inflated cocoa prices to unprecedented levels. Historically, cocoa has maintained a price of around $2,000 per ton; however, projections for 2024 have seen prices exceed $12,000 per ton. This alarming hike has had a ripple effect on the global chocolate market, prompting industry giants like Hershey, the largest chocolate producer in the United States, to raise their prices last year in response to these escalating costs. Hershey also faced its worst profitability in seven years during 2024, illustrating the profound impact of these economic challenges.

Experts note that chocolate is particularly vulnerable to price hikes because it lacks substitutes in the grocery store. Joseph Balagtas, a professor of agricultural economics at Purdue University, explained that consumers often cannot easily replace chocolate with other items. For instance, if the price of chicken goes up, consumers might switch to pork or hamburgers for their grilling sessions. However, creating chocolate-chip cookies without chocolate chips poses a significant challenge. Balagtas emphasizes, If you know youre going to grill this weekend and chicken prices are high, maybe youre more likely to make hamburgers or pork chops rather than chicken breast. But chocolate-chip cookies without chocolate chips are a little tough.

Compounding these challenges are the new tariffs introduced by Trump in April 2024, which are expected to further inflate chocolate prices. While the precise economic impacts of these tariffs remain uncertain, the Yale Budget Lab estimates that they could cost consumers as much as $4,900 annually, translating to an average price increase of about 3% across various goodsincluding beloved chocolate products.

In a pointed message to American companies, Trump noted, If you want your tariff rate to be zero, then you build your product right here in America. However, for businesses reliant on global supply chains, particularly chocolate manufacturers, transitioning production to the United States is fraught with complications and expenses.

The cacao plant, which yields cocoa, can only thrive in tropical climates, with the United States having just two such regions: Hawaii and Puerto Rico. Consequently, a vast majority of cocoa consumed in the U.S. is imported. Greg DAlesandre, co-owner and chocolate sourcerer at Dandelion Chocolate in San Francisco, stated, The United States produces, Im going to generously say, 100 tons of cocoa a year. We use about 120 tons of cocoa a year, and Dandelion is considered a very, very small chocolate maker. Theres no chance that [the U.S.] can make all the cocoa that we actually need.

This reliance on imports means that both small and large chocolate manufacturers are affected by universal tariffs. In addition to the high price of cocoa, producers are also facing inflation in other areas of their manufacturing processes. Oliver Holecek, owner of Primo Chocolate based in Troy, New York, expressed his concerns over rising packaging costs, noting, Most paper manufacturing happens in China, and theres just really not a lot of great resources in the U.S. yet.

Furthermore, shipping prices may also experience fluctuations due to the tariffs, especially since congestion at American ports is expected to increase as companies adapt to the new regulations.

The combination of these factors contributes to an increasingly unstable environment for chocolate businesses, particularly smaller enterprises that do not possess the same leverage or resources as their larger counterparts. DAlesandre shared his experiences, stating that while Dandelion had to increase prices last year due to soaring cocoa costs, he remains uncertain about how customers will react to further price hikes. Ive known three chocolate makers that have gone out of business over the last three years because theres too much turmoil in pricing, he said. Its very difficult to make a plan for it were doing our best to make plans, but a lot of it is wait and see.