In a significant shift within the apparel industry, consumers are poised to witness a trend towards minimalism that spans from high-end luxury brands to fast fashion outlets. This anticipated movement comes as experts predict heightened economic uncertainty, possibly leading to a recession that will influence consumer behavior and fashion choices.

Fashion industry insiders, including trend forecasters, writers, and academics, have shared their insights with Business Insider, suggesting that if the economy dips, expect to see more neutral tones, conservative silhouettes, and an overall minimalist aesthetic dominating both runways and retail displays.

Recessions tend to flatten aspiration, remarked Sarah Owen, a respected trend forecaster and social scientist, in her statement to Business Insider. When the future feels uncertain, fashion tends to recoil into the familiar, she added, indicating that consumers might gravitate towards styles that provide comfort and stability during tough economic times.

Historical Context: Fashion Trends During Recessions

Looking back at previous economic downturns from the 1930s to the Great Recession in 2008, experts note a clear pattern wherein fashion trends tend to become more muted. Historical recessions have often led to quieter fashion trends, said Monisha Klar, the director of fashion at trend forecasting company WGSN. According to Vincent Quan, a professor at the Fashion Institute of Technology, these trends typically see a resurgence of blacks, whites, neutrals, and grays.

For instance, during the Great Depression, hem lengths became longer, reflecting a more modest approach to fashion. In the aftermath of the dot-com bust in 2001, consumers leaned towards safe Americana styles, while the Great Recession ushered in what experts termed recession-core minimalism. Entrenchment. Less daring designs. Revivals of the past as opposed to some wild new thing, explained Anne Higonnet, an art history professor at Barnard College, regarding the fashion responses during previous economic struggles.

The Rise of Stealth Wealth

Another trend likely to persist is the concept of 'quiet luxury,' which has gained traction in recent years. Experts agree that even if the economy enters a severe downturn, the wealthiest consumers will continue purchasing luxury items, albeit with a more understated flair. Dana Thomas, author of the influential book Deluxe: How Luxury Lost Its Luster, noted that displaying one's wealth became a social faux pas after the 2008 financial crisis, as many faced significant financial losses.

Despite the potential slowdown in luxury spending, major brands like LVMH which oversees prestigious labels such as Louis Vuitton and Dior have indicated some challenges ahead, including a failure to meet first-quarter sales projections. Similarly, Herms has announced plans to raise prices in the U.S. to counter the anticipated impact of tariffs.

Luxury wont vanish, ever; it just gets quieter, Owen stated, highlighting the enduring nature of high-end fashion despite economic challenges.

Shifting Consumer Focus

For the average shopper, the economic landscape will likely prompt a return to basics, favoring versatile and practical clothing. Therell be a flight toward value, said Quan, emphasizing that basics that can be worn repeatedly will rise in popularity. Klar from WGSN predicts a noticeable shift away from maximalist trends as consumers adjust their spending habits to suit tighter budgets, with office-inspired looks remaining in demand.

Furthermore, the resale market may flourish as thrifty shoppers look for sustainable and affordable options, while mid-tier luxury brands could face tougher times. Mid-tier luxury is always the first to feel the squeeze, Owen explained, underscoring that these brands may not possess enough appeal to justify their price points during economic downturns.

Impact of Tariffs on the Fashion Industry

The ongoing trade tensions, particularly the tariffs imposed during President Donald Trumps administration, have added another layer of complexity to the fashion sector. In 2023, the U.S. imported $19.6 billion in textiles and clothing from China, a significant volume that underscores the integral role of Chinese manufacturing in the fashion supply chain.

Higonnet pointed out that while some production has shifted to neighboring countries like Vietnam and Cambodia, this migration poses challenges for fast fashion brands that may struggle to maintain affordability. These companies arent going to simply establish factories in the U.S. without adjusting their prices, she warned.

Guy, a well-known menswear writer, dispelled the notion that the shift to higher-end clothing would stem from the departure of Chinese manufacturing. Manufacturers in China produce everything from $5 Shein tops to $1,200 hand-knitted Double RL cashmere sweaters, he explained. The risk remains that consumers could face either reduced quality or significantly increased prices as brands adapt to a changing manufacturing landscape.

As uncertainty looms over the economy, it appears that the spectrum of fashion from the most affordable polyester garments to the highest quality cashmere will evolve in response to these pressures. As Thomas succinctly put it, If this carries on like it is, were going to just keep wearing beige.