After the death of Francis on Monday, the Catholic Church will be choosing a new leader. While there are four Canadian cardinals who could become the next pope, one expert whom CTVNews.ca spoke to said that outcome is “very unlikely.” After the death, the College of Cardinals takes over governance of the church until the election of the new pontiff. The College of Cardinals comprises the pope-appointed cardinals, who wear the distinctive red vestments, and are the church’s most senior officials. This election is conducted secretly in the Vatican, with cardinals literally locked up “with a key” until they reach an agreement, according to the Archdiocese of Toronto. There are only five Canadian cardinals out of the 252 total, according to the Vatican’s website. But only four of them are eligible to vote out of the 138 voters in the conclave, as cardinals must be under 80 to vote. The Canadian cardinals Canada’s cardinals are Thomas Collins, Gerald Lacroix, Michael Czerny, Francis Leo and Marc Ouellet. All of them are eligible to be chosen as pope by their peers, as any baptized Catholic male can technically be elected pope. What are their chances? The chance of electing a Canadian pope is “very unlikely,” says Emma Anderson, professor of religious studies at the University of Ottawa. “So we don’t have a lot of chances because we don’t have a lot of cardinals,” Anderson said in a video interview with CTVNews.ca. Anderson considers Lacroix of Quebec to be the Canadian front-runner, but she said past sex assault and sex abuse allegations may have tainted his image. While Lacroix and Ouellet have been accused of sex misconduct, they were not convicted and both denied the accusations. Ouellet was once considered a strong papal contender, she said. Most of the cardinals hail from Europe (114), followed by Asia (37), South America (32), Africa (29), North America (28), Central America (8) and Oceania (4). Among the current cardinals, most of the eligible voters were appointed by Francis (110), followed by 23 cardinal voters chosen by Pope Benedict and five chosen by Pope John Paul II. Anderson points out another factor going against Canadian cardinals, with some like Leo and Czerny who have not been in the senior position for long. Leo being in his early 50s may be too young, she added. Though they were not convicted, the allegations may taint prospects such as Ouellet and Lacroix, she added. The following are the four Canadian cardinals who will gather at the Sistine Chapel and take an oath of secrecy as they choose their new leader: Thomas Collins: Cardinal Thomas taking oath Cardinal Thomas Collins takes an oath of secrecy inside the Sistine Chapel at the Vatican, Tuesday, March 12, 2013. Thomas Collins, archbishop emeritus of Toronto, was born and raised in Guelph, Ont., on Jan. 16, 1947, according to his biographies on church websites. The 78-year-old held leadership positions such as coadjutor bishop to coadjutor archbishop in Alberta before he became archbishop of Edmonton in 1999 and archbishop of Toronto in 2007. Pope Benedict XVI elevated him to the College of Cardinals in 2012. Gerald Lacroix: Gerald Lacroix Cardinal Gérald Lacroix, Archbishop of Quebec leaves after he delivering a speech during a Mass of Thanksgiving for the canonization of two Canadian saints, St. Francis de Laval and St. Mary of the Incarnation, celebrated by Pope Francis, in St. Peter's Basilica, at the Vatican, Sunday, Oct. 12, 2014. (LA PRESSE CANDIENNE/AP/Andrew Medichini) Cardinal Gerald Lacroix, archbishop of Quebec and primate of Canada, was born on July 27, 1957 in Saint-Hilaire de Dorset, according to his biography on the Canadian Conference of Catholic Bishops website. His family moved to Manchester, N.H., in 1965. The 67-year-old served as a missionary in Colombia from 1990 to 1998 and held various church leadership roles in Quebec. Pope Francis named him a cardinal on Jan. 12, 2014. He was accused of abusing a 17-year-old girl about four decades ago. He denied the allegations, and a Vatican investigation found no evidence of misconduct, The Catholic News Agency reported on July 23, 2024. Michael Czerny: Michael Czerny Cardinal Michael Czerny walks after being elevated during a consistory inside St. Peter's Basilica, at the Vatican, Saturday, Oct. 5, 2019. Pope Francis has chosen 13 men he admires and whose sympathies align with his to become the Catholic Church's newest cardinals. (AP Photo/Andrew Medichini) Appointed cardinal by Pope Francis in 2019, Michael Czerny was born in Brno, the former Czechoslovakia, on July 18, 1946, according to the Canadian Conference of Catholic Bishops website. The 78-year-old immigrated with his family to Montreal when he was two. He is a member of the Society of Jesus, a Roman Catholic order of priests and brothers also known as Jesuits. When he worked as director of a human rights institute in El Salvador, one of his friends wrote that he was “rooted and grounded in the lives of the truly poor of El Salvador, an experience which enlivens his priesthood,” according to the Jesuits of Canada website. Francis Leo: Bishop Francis (Frank) Leo Bishop Francis (Frank) Leo has been appointed as the new archbishop for the Archdiocese of Toronto. (Archdiocese of Toronto photo) Cardinal Francis Leo, archbishop of Toronto, became the 18th cardinal in the history of the Catholic Church in Canada on Dec. 8, 2024. Born in Montreal on June 30, 1971, 53-year-old Leo is the youngest among the current group of Canadian cardinals. He has a range of leadership experience, from serving at parishes in Montreal to working in various papal diplomatic missions and teaching in Canada, Australia and the United States, according to a press release from the Canadian Conference of Catholic Bishops. Pope Francis appointed him auxiliary bishop of Montreal in 2022, and he became Archbishop of Toronto in 2023. Marc Ouellet: Marc Ouellet leads mass in Vatican City Marc Ouellet leads mass in Vatican City An ineligible cardinal is Marc Ouellet, archbishop emeritus of Quebec and prefect emeritus of the Dicastery for Bishops, was born on June 8, 1944 in La Motte, Que. The 80-year-old is past the age limit for cardinals eligible to vote for a pope. Voters must be under 80. Pope John Paul II appointed Ouellet a cardinal in 2003. He faced two sex assault allegations in 2022 and 2023. He denied the allegations and the complaint was later dismissed. Who is more likely to become the next pope? The pope that the cardinals elect must be an ordained bishop, but technically any baptized Catholic male can be elected pope. Only cardinals have been elected since the 15th century. One of the popular names cited in media reports is Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, who hails from the Philippines. Tagle is also the No. 1 prospect on the Papability Index (@pope_predictor) on X as of Feb. 1, which says it uses an algorithm for its ranking. The 67-year-old Jesuit cardinal has been touted as the “Asian Francis,” according to The College of Cardinals Report. Cardinal Chibly Langlois, appointed the first Haitian cardinal by Pope Francis in 2014, is listed second on the Papability Index on X. The 66-year-old bishop of Les Cayes helped lead the rebuilding efforts when Haiti was struck by a massive earthquake in 2010, according to a profile on the Vatican’s website. The index ranked Canada’s Lacroix as third in its index.