In a significant political shift, the mood in Quebec is evolving as voters prepare for the upcoming Canadian election. Jessica Murphy from the BBC reports from Montreal, capturing the sentiments of residents who are torn between regional identity and national unity. Many, like 70-year-old Suzanne Dumont from Quebec City, are motivated by a pragmatic approach to voting, believing its essential to elect a government capable of standing up to the challenges posed by the United States. Dumont identifies herself as a sovereigntist one who supports Quebec's independence but this election, her decision to cast her vote for the Liberal party stems from a sense of urgency to ensure a majority government capable of addressing the threats posed by U.S. policies.

Meanwhile, in the bustling Jean-Talon market in Montreal, 65-year-old Louis Plouffe shares his perspective. He values the Bloc Qubcois, a federal party that exclusively runs candidates in Quebec and champions the province's interests. However, he expresses a desire for more than just representation in opposition; he seeks a government with a robust mandate ready to face the political wave emanating from the U.S. Plouffes endorsement of Mark Carney, the Liberal leader, reflects a broader trend in Quebec where increasing numbers are gravitating towards the party amid fears of U.S. intervention in Canadian affairs.

milie Foster, an adjunct professor in politics at Carleton University, notes the rising tide of Canadian patriotism in Quebec. She emphasizes that many residents prefer to remain a part of Canada rather than risk alignment with the United States, especially as tensions escalate. According to Sbastien Dallaire, a pollster with Lger, the current political climate makes it difficult for discussions about Quebec sovereignty to gain traction, as the collective focus has shifted towards addressing the national crisis and the perceived threat from Washington.

A recent survey conducted by Lger indicates that nearly 40% of Bloc voters believe that an independent Quebec would wield less influence than Canada as a whole in negotiations with the U.S. This finding is particularly telling as it reflects a growing concern among Quebec voters about the province's efficacy on the international stage. Currently, the Liberals are polling at around 46% within Quebec, with the Bloc trailing at 25%, closely followed by the Conservatives, who historically struggle in the province. Given that Quebec holds 78 seats in the House of Commons, it remains a crucial battleground that can significantly influence the outcome of the election.

The political landscape has shifted dramatically following the resignation of long-time Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. This unprecedented transition has been overshadowed by the involvement of U.S. President Donald Trump, whose implementation of tariffs is anticipated to impact Quebec's economy severely. The province is a major supplier of aluminum to the U.S., and Trump's 25% tariffs on this sector, along with his contentious stance on Quebecs forestry and dairy industries, have raised alarms among Quebecers.

Quebec is known for its strong sense of identity and cultural distinctiveness, having held two referendums on independence from Canada. Thus, Trumps persistent criticisms of Canadian sovereignty have sparked significant unease in the province. Bloc MP Louis-Philippe Sauv, who recently won a seat in a district previously regarded as a Liberal stronghold, reflects the challenges ahead. He emphasizes that in his conversations with voters, issues such as housing and immigration are prevalent, but the looming threat from the U.S. dominates discussions during this election cycle.

Reflecting on his campaign, Sauv expresses frustration that the conversation has become so focused on U.S. relations. He notes that while Trump may not be a permanent fixture in American politics, the housing crisis and other local issues will persist long after the election. Despite the Bloc's leadership and messaging, there remains public discontent regarding the partys ability to address these pressing issues in light of external pressures.

Interestingly, the consensus among political analysts is that Bloc leader Yves-Franois Blanchet has conducted a solid campaign. He positions the Bloc as a necessary counterbalance to federal powers, arguing that Ottawa may overlook provincial interests when faced with trade negotiations and security discussions involving the U.S.

Mark Carney, who was born in western Canada and has faced scrutiny over his proficiency in French, is an unexpected contender. His mixed linguistic abilities have historically posed challenges in Quebec politics, where bilingualism is highly valued. Carney himself rates his French as a six out of ten, a score that Dumont suggests is overly generous. Moreover, his stance on various sensitive issues, such as the potential intervention by a Liberal government concerning Quebec's language laws, has left many Quebecers puzzled about his popularity. Bloc MP Sauv pointedly questions the lack of backlash against Carney, suggesting an almost inexplicable Teflon effect surrounding his candidacy.