The pope is said to be infallible but bookmakers also have a reputation for getting it right, most of the time. Now, as the Vatican City prepares for the papal conclave – the solemn ritual by which the next pope will be chosen – some bookies are already licking their lips in anticipation of a rush of bets. Gambling industry sources said they had been swapping tips on the runners and riders, as if the 252 cardinals were thoroughbreds being paraded through the paddock at the Grand National. Polymarket, a fast-growing cryptocurrency betting platform that operates in a similar way to a stock exchange, claimed to be hosting peer-to-peer bets worth more than $6m (£4.5m), as of Friday morning. The top five backers of the current favourite, the Italian Pietro Parolin, including one calling himself HolyMoses7, held positions worth more than $25,000. However, the market was much smaller on the UK’s powerhouse betting exchange Betfair, which is subject to much stricter regulation. Less than £8,000 was riding on the outcome, indicating less interest than for this weekend’s Premier League tie between already-relegated Southampton and Everton. With every punter seeking an edge, some have speculated that the result of the process, depicted in the Oscar-winning film Conclave, might leak out even before the white smoke that signals that a successor has been chosen. The professional gambler Neil Channing said some fellow pros had taken a break from betting on the World Snooker Championships to exchange wisdom on the conclave, speculating on which cardinals might be damaged by links to various scandals. “I don’t think I’ve ever bet on it but it’s not much different to the Doncaster mayoral race is it?” he said. “I’m waiting for my secret cardinal source.” The late Pope Francis is unlikely to have appreciated the spectacle, having urged the faithful to reject “financial speculation”. Mourners might also balk at the sight of betting firms leveraging the death of the pontiff as an opportunity to sign up new players. The multibillion-pound betting industry, however, has no such qualms. As of Friday, major bookies were offering odds on around 50 of 252 cardinals, although in theory deacons, priests and even lay people – although not women – could be chosen. The likes of Paddy Power, Sky Bet and Ladbrokes were also promoting “free bets” for anyone making a wager via a page about the papal race on the odds aggregation website Oddschecker. The clear favourite to succeed Pope Francis, at the time of writing, was Parolin, an Italian who is expected to preside over the conclave, much as the character played by Ralph Fiennes did in the film. Coming in as short as 2-1, according to Oddschecker, Parolin was far out in front, ahead of the second-placed runner, Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines, who was at 5-2 with some bookmakers. The other 45 men for whom the site gave odds were all a long way back, including the highest-placed Briton, Timothy Radcliffe, at 33-1. But both cinemagoers and ardent Catholics will know that a dark horse is always in with a shout because, just as in the film Conclave, a long shot can come from nowhere to pip rivals to the post. Jorge Mario Bergoglio of Argentina was 15th favourite with some bookies before becoming being elected and taking the papal name Francis in 2013, while is predecessor Pope Benedict was also unfancied at first. Gambling on papal conclaves is nothing new. Indeed various historians have cited it as relatively common practice in the 16th century and even before, with the great banking dynasties of Rome running the books. In 2005, the Paddy Power co-founder David Power was thrown out of St Peter’s Square for displaying his prices for the conclave that elected Pope Benedict. As light-hearted as papal odds may seem, potential punters might be wise to proceed with caution. Betting on the outcome of non-sporting events is associated with some of the highest rates of addiction of any type of gambling, according to the latest figures from the Gambling Commission, higher than casino games and comparable with online slot machines. But users of Polymarket were arguing among themselves about betting strategies. One advised: “Look at history.” The response was withering: “If you had looked at history and gambled on the election of the previous three popes, you would have lost your underwear. “Had anyone ever seen a Jesuit? No. Had anyone ever seen a Pole? No. And a German? Do you know who the last German pope was before Ratzinger? Centuries before.” Another simply said: “The next pope will be African and you will enjoy it.”