No previous U.S. government, nor its current second-term President Donald Trump, is typically characterized by a forgiving nature toward perceived betrayals. This sentiment is especially pronounced when the party in question is one that Washington has depended on for an extended period. Saudi Arabia, recognized as one of the worlds foremost oil suppliers and the de facto leader of the OPEC cartel for decades, has been viewed with skepticism by the United States since its role in catalyzing the 1973/74 Oil Crisis, a time when the U.S. and its allies remained heavily reliant on Saudi oil. This complex relationship is thoroughly analyzed in my latest book regarding the evolving global oil market order.

The distrust intensified following Saudi Arabia's oil price war initiated in 2014, which specifically targeted the burgeoning U.S. shale oil industry, further complicating diplomatic ties. Recently, a new oil market forecast from the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggests that the future oil prices may remain significantly below the levels required for Saudi Arabia to balance its national budget in the coming years. According to a senior Washington-based legal expert who spoke exclusively to OilPrice.com, it appears that Washington may finally be ready to cease tolerating any further exploitation from the Saudis.

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Elena Petrova