The first Classic of the Flat season is upon us with the Betfred 2,000 Guineas taking place at Newmarket on Saturday (3.35 ) and we've taken a look at previous runnings and picked out the key factors to help you find the winner. *This article was first published in the Racing Post Weekender, available in most retailers and readable online for those with a Racing Post+ Ultimate subscription Juvenile form is key When seven of the last ten winners were making their reappearance and nine of the last 14 had been absent for six months, it follows that the major two-year-old races carry greater significance than the recognised trials. Since Golan in 2001, only Makfi, Night Of Thunder and all-round trends buster Notable Speech had not competed at Group level at two. Going further back, 23 of the last 33 winners had won a juvenile Group race, 16 of them at the highest level. The Dewhurst has long been the definitive juvenile pointer. It has produced eight winners since 1992 and since 1970, Nijinsky, Wollow, El Gran Señor, Zafonic, Pennekamp, Rock Of Gibraltar, Frankel, Dawn Approach, Churchill and Chaldean have all achieved the double. A number of its recent winners have fluffed their lines here but last year’s scorer Shadow Of Light was a highly progressive juvenile and that breakthrough win over 7f was crucial to his chances, as the last winner having a first run beyond 6f was Island Sands back in 1999. Shadow Of Light completed a Middle Park-Dewhurst double in a stellar juvenile campaign Credit: Edward Whitaker Runner-up in the Dewhurst was Expanded , who now looks Aidan O’Brien’s main hope with Twain a non-runner. O’Brien does not do prep races with his serious Guineas aspirants and his ten winners were all making their seasonal debuts. However, the yard has not found the key to this opening Classic since 2019. Scorthy Champ won the National Stakes and the Curragh feature is a great guide for Irish-trained runners. He would emulate Churchill, Gleneagles, Dawn Approach, George Washington, Refuse To Bend and King Of Kings in following up those Group 1 honours. Untitled Document Recommended Offer 4/5 Bet £5, Get £30 In Free Bets NEW CUSTOMER OFFER Request custom bets on Twitter with #WhatOddsPaddy CLAIM OFFER 18+ T&Cs apply New Customer offer. Place a min £10 bet on Football on odds of min 1.5 (1/2), get £50 in Free Bet Builders after the qualifying bet has been settled. Rewards valid for 90 days. Only deposits via cards & Apple Pay will qualify. T&Cs apply. Please Gamble Responsibly. Trials and tribulations Field Of Gold was catapulted to favouritism after bolting up in the Craven but the recognised trials are rarely significant. Since Mystiko followed up his Free Handicap win in 1991, Frankel and Chaldean are the only Craven winners to have tasted Guineas glory, while the sole Greenham winner to oblige was Haafhd. Field Of Gold is the 2,000 Guineas favourite after a dominant win in the Craven Credit: Edward Whitaker Backers of Field Of Gold can take heart that the Craven produced nine winners between 1975 and 2004, and he did look an above-average winner of the Group 3. However, modern trends would suggest that he’s more likely to be placed than win. Seven of its last 16 winners made the frame at Newmarket. Key pointers Ten of the last 12 winners were sired by a European Group 1 winner at a mile or beyond The last 12 winners all boasted a strike-rate of at least 50 per cent. Chaldean unseated on exiting the stalls in the Greenham and, if taking him out of the equation, the last winner to finish outside of the top three the time before was Rodrigo De Triano in 1992 Verdict Domestic trial winners are usually opposable so at the head of the market Field Of Gold is taken on, and it’s a toss-up between Scorthy Champ and Shadow Of Light. Scorthy Champ pulls clear of Henri Matisse and Seagulls Eleven in the Vincent O'Brien National Stakes Credit: CAROLINE NORRIS Swinging the pendulum towards Joseph O’Brien’s colt is that he was such a strong stayer at two when confined to 7f, whereas Shadow Of Light might be a Dewhurst winner but the Middle Park he won the time before is a breeding ground for sprinters. His trainer Charlie Appleby has already touched on targeting the Commonwealth Cup should he fail to stay the mile. Scorthy Champ 15:35 Newmarket View Racecard Jky: Tnr: Joseph Patrick O'Brien Read more: Saeed bin Suroor to hold chances in both Guineas this weekend - including with a longshot whose work 'has improved every week' Field Of Gold hardens as 2,000 Guineas favourite after Aidan O'Brien rules out his main contender Plenty in Field Of Gold's favour in 2,000 Guineas - but big danger lurks among last season's juvenile stars Looking for free bets? Racing Post have got the best offers, all in one place. Visit racingpost.com/freebets to find out more. Commercial notice: This article contains affiliate links. Offers are handpicked and come from operators that our experts have first-hand experience of. Opening an account via one of these links will earn revenue for the Racing Post, which will be used to continue producing our award-winning coverage of horseracing.