The writer is a science commentator, delving into the multifaceted world of rice, a staple food crucial to the diets of more than half of the global population. Rice is not just a culinary staple; it is harvested from a semi-aquatic grass, and its cultivation is deeply intertwined with the socio-economic fabric of many nations, especially in Asia. Recently, Japan has tapped into its national rice reserves for the first time since the catastrophic tsunami in 2011, a move aimed at alleviating public panic and soaring prices amid rising consumer anxiety.

Countries are increasingly focused on achieving self-sufficiency in rice production. For instance, just this week, China unveiled an ambitious 10-year agricultural master plan aimed at bolstering domestic food security. Similarly, Indonesia has designated a region approximately the size of Jamaica within its extensive archipelago for the establishment of new rice farms. This expansion reflects a broader trend among nations seeking to secure their food supply chains.

However, the journey toward enhanced rice production is fraught with challenges. In Indonesia, a massive initiative known as the South Papua megaproject has come under scrutiny. Researchers have cautioned in the journal Science that the project is likely to face significant hurdles due to factors such as poor soil quality and the relatively dry climate of the region. Additionally, the Indonesian government has faced allegations of land seizures from indigenous communities to facilitate these agricultural goals, further complicating the initiative.

In the Philippines, legal challenges from Greenpeace have impeded the commercial cultivation of genetically modified Golden Rice, a development that was anticipated to combat vitamin A deficiency and improve nutrition. In a world already grappling with food insecurity, climate change, water scarcity, and geopolitical conflicts, the future of rice—a foundational foodstuff—is entangled in a complex web of scientific, political, and economic factors.

This skepticism surrounding Indonesia’s vast rice project is compounded by historical failures to replace rice paddies lost to development on Java, the country’s most densely populated island. A notable attempt in the 1990s, which aimed to convert extensive wet peatlands in Borneo into rice fields, ultimately failed. The draining of these wetlands exposed pyrite-rich soils to oxygen, resulting in the production of sulphuric acid that rendered the soil too acidic for rice cultivation. Moreover, the cleared areas became susceptible to drought and were often ravaged by intentional wildfires.

A separate initiative to expand potato and onion farming in North Sumatra faced similar challenges, as scientific assessments indicated that the volcanic soil was not suitable for such crops. Many farmers have since abandoned those lands, raising further concerns about the feasibility of current projects. The absence of a thorough soil feasibility study for the new rice initiative has left experts apprehensive once again.

Professor Guy Kirk, an expert in soil systems at Cranfield University in England and a member of the UK Rice Research Consortium, expressed his understanding of the concerns voiced by researchers. “This is a classic tidal swamp area with acid sulphate soils, which can lead to disastrous consequences if not managed correctly,” he explained. In response to prior criticisms, the Indonesian government has asserted its commitment to planting new rice varieties tailored to local conditions, should that be necessary.

Enhancing rice varieties to suit local environments represents one potential strategy to increase yields. Professor Kirk estimates that global rice production must rise by approximately 15 to 20 percent in order to meet escalating demand in the coming decades, particularly from African nations. In 2023, South Korea introduced the K-Rice Belt Initiative, aimed at assisting ten African countries in boosting their rice production capabilities.

However, the effects of climate change are complicating these initiatives, as wetter wet seasons and drier dry seasons have made crop yields increasingly unpredictable. This unpredictability has prompted research at institutions like the International Rice Research Institute, which operates in various regions across Asia and Africa, to develop rice varieties that can endure drought and resist flooding.

Optimizing crop management practices, including improved irrigation and fertilizer application, is another vital strategy for closing the so-called yield gap. Moreover, an ambitious initiative known as the C4 Rice Project seeks to dramatically enhance the efficiency of photosynthesis in rice—a critical factor for crop yield. Launched in 2006 and supported by funding from the Gates Foundation, this international project aims to engineer alternative photosynthesis pathways in rice. Other research efforts focus on enriching the micronutrient content of rice and lowering the glycaemic index (GI). Professor Kirk’s research encompasses a range of topics, from enhancing iron and zinc content to addressing arsenic contamination in rice.

One particular project in collaboration with partners from Germany and the United States is currently stalled, a casualty of severe budget cuts to scientific research during President Donald Trump’s administration. Esteemed institutions like the IRRI, known for developing the first high-yield rice variety, IR8, which catalyzed Asia’s green revolution and helped avert famine, are also experiencing setbacks as international aid diminishes. “This is unfortunate news for the scientific community,” remarks Kirk.

As we look ahead, the challenges facing rice production are even more pressing. The world will continue to contend with the consequences of climate change, water scarcity, and societal conflicts—issues that must be addressed while simultaneously catering to a growing global population that will require more food than ever before.