SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, Calif., April 18, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- A groundbreaking study published in Nature Communications has revealed that Univfy, a prominent innovator in fertility and health artificial intelligence (AI), has developed proprietary IVF live birth prediction models that significantly outperform traditional US registry-based models. This research not only validates the effectiveness of Univfy's models in real-world clinical settings but also underscores their potential to enhance access to and affordability of in vitro fertilization (IVF), ultimately improving patient outcomes.

The study, titled "Machine learning center-specific models show improved live birth predictions over US national registry-based model," highlights how Univfy's models achieved major improvements in model metrics, notably the F1 scorean important measure combining precision and recalland the precision-recall area-under-the-curve (PR AUC). These metrics are essential, as they gauge a model's ability to minimize false positives and false negatives, a critical aspect for implementing economic solutions in healthcare, including value-based care and actuarial models.

In their analysis, researchers reviewed data from 4,645 patients across six fertility centers, concluding that Univfy's models accurately predicted that 76% of patients had a first-cycle IVF live birth probability (LBP) of 50% or greater. This is a significant finding, particularly because 23% of those patients, who were forecasted to have a higher probability of live birth by Univfy, were assigned lower LBPs by the US national registry model. Additionally, Univfy effectively identified 11% of patients predicted to have LBPs of 75% or more, with a stark contrast to the national registry model, which did not recognize any of these patients as having such probabilities.

This study marks a significant milestone for Univfy, reinforcing the scientific foundation of its AI/ML platform. It highlights the capability of these models to contribute to economic solutions, such as value-based IVF care, which are crucial for expanding access to IVF treatments. Prior research has demonstrated that using Univfy's PreIVF Report for patient counseling can lead to a two- to three-fold increase in IVF utilization across centers in the US, UK, and EU, showcasing the benefits of employing locally validated AI-driven solutions in clinical practices.

"This publication is a testament to the rigorous science behind the Univfy AI/ML Platform, enabling it to accurately predict the excellent IVF outcomes achieved by our collaborators and the wider IVF ecosystem, which often go unrecognized," said Dr. Mylene Yao, CEO and Co-founder of Univfy. "Our founding mission at Univfy has always been to improve patient-centric care, especially through enhanced prognostic counseling for IVF. By increasing transparency around IVF costs and success rates, we have created a platform that not only supports the scaling of validated economic solutions but is also essential for helping more individuals and couples afford IVF in their journey to start a family."

The study's findings hold several important implications for various stakeholders:

  • For patients: The models provide improved transparency regarding IVF costs and success rates, empowering individuals and couples to make informed decisions about their fertility care and family-building journeys.
  • For healthcare providers: The enhanced patient counseling capabilities and streamlined clinical workflows foster greater efficiency and help prevent underestimating IVF efficacy, thereby minimizing treatment delays.
  • For health insurers and benefits programs: The insights gained from these models enhance member experiences and transparency, support providers, and can facilitate the expansion of IVF coverage, ultimately leading to cost savings.

About Univfy
Univfy is a Series B company based in the San Francisco Bay Area that focuses on improving the success, access, and affordability of IVF treatments. The company's AI/ML platform, developed by researchers at Stanford University, offers patients personalized pre-treatment probabilities of having a baby through IVF and other options, thereby empowering their decision-making process. Additionally, the platform enables healthcare providers to offer value-based pricing for IVF services at scale, making these treatments more affordable. Univfy has implemented its solutions in the US, UK, and EU through a business-to-business model that aids providers in patient counseling, clinical analytics, and business analytics, including tools for customer relationship management. The technology and products developed by Univfy are safeguarded by a robust global intellectual property portfolio, which includes issued and pending patents and copyrights.

About Infertility, IVF, and the IVF Market
Infertility is defined as the requirement for medical assistance to conceive a child. It affects approximately one in six individuals of reproductive age, translating to over 200 million people globally, with around 7 to 10 million in the US alone, about 25 million in the EU, approximately 3 to 5 million in the UK, and around 186 million in other countries. Each year, roughly 4 million IVF treatments are performed worldwide, resulting in over 1 million births. In the US, IVF accounts for about 2% of annual births. While IVF is generally safe and effective, multiple cycles may be necessary, and high costs, lack of insurance coverage, and uncertainty of success present significant barriers. Consequently, the IVF utilization rate stands at a mere 3% in the US, as many patients find it difficult to access and afford these essential treatments.

The estimates provided are derived from reports by leading organizations, including the World Health Organization (WHO), the American Society for Reproductive Medicine (ASRM), RESOLVE: The National Infertility Association, and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), among others.

The IVF market, both globally and in the US, has seen considerable consolidation driven by private equity. As of 2023, the estimated size of the IVF market stands at approximately USD $25 billion, with projections indicating it could reach around USD $44 billion by 2033, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.57% from 2024 to 2033 (Biospace, April 2024).