SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, California, April 18, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- In a breakthrough study published in Nature Communications, Univfy has demonstrated that its proprietary prediction models for live births following in vitro fertilization (IVF) significantly outperform those based on U.S. national registry data. This study utilizes critical model metrics that are essential for enhancing access to IVF, affordability, and clinical outcomes.

Univfy, a leading innovator in fertility and health AI technology, revealed that its models achieved substantial improvements in several performance indicators, including the F1 score (the harmonic mean of precision and recall) and the Precision-Recall Area Under the Curve (PR AUC). These metrics not only reflect enhanced accuracy but also the model's ability to minimize false positives and false negatives, which is crucial for effective economic solutions, such as value-based care models and actuarial frameworks.

Specifically, the study analyzed a cohort of 4,645 patients across six centers, showing that Univfy's models accurately predicted a live birth probability (LBP) of 50% or higher in the first IVF cycle for 76% of the patients. Notably, 23% of patients who were assigned a higher LBP by Univfy's models received a lower prediction from the national registry model. Furthermore, Univfy successfully identified that 11% of women had an LBP of 75% or greater, with an actual live birth rate of 81%, while the U.S. national registry failed to identify any patients with an LBP at that level.

This publication marks a significant milestone in validating the scientific foundation of the Univfy AI/ML platform and its potential for economic solutions, particularly a value-oriented IVF care model that is essential for improving both access to IVF and its affordability. This study builds upon earlier research demonstrating that patient counseling based on the Univfy PreIVF Report could increase IVF utilization rates by two to three times, and it validates AI/ML models used to forecast live births following IVF for centers in the U.S., U.K., and EU. Such findings reinforce the value of implementing locally validated AI-powered solutions in clinical practice under real-world conditions.

Dr. Mylene Yao, CEO and co-founder of Univfy, emphasized the significance of this release, stating, "This publication is a testament to the rigorous science behind the Univfy AI/ML platform, which enables it to accurately predict the excellent IVF outcomes achieved by our partners and the broader IVF ecosystem, which have historically been underestimated. Univfy was established to enhance patient-centered care, especially in supporting the IVF prognosis discussion for patients. Through our efforts to improve transparency regarding IVF costs and success rates, we have developed a platform that facilitates the scalable production of validated economic solutions, critically needed to make IVF more accessible and affordable for women and couples aspiring to start a family."

Univfy's findings offer valuable insights for various stakeholders:

  • For Patients: Increased transparency in IVF costs empowers informed decisions regarding fertility treatments and family planning.
  • For Healthcare Providers: Enhanced patient counseling and streamlined clinical workflows help avoid underestimations of IVF effectiveness and treatment delays.
  • For Insurers and Benefits Programs: Improved member experiences and transparency enhance provider support and expand IVF coverage with predictability and cost savings.

About Univfy
Univfy is a Series B company based in the San Francisco Bay Area, dedicated to improving IVF success rates, access, and affordability. The proprietary Univfy AI/ML platform, developed by researchers at Stanford University, delivers accurate, personalized, and validated pre-treatment likelihoods of having a child via IVF and other treatment options to support each patient's decision-making process. Additionally, the Univfy platform enables providers to offer value-based pricing models for IVF at scale, making this crucial treatment more affordable.

Univfy has launched provider solutions through a B2B model in the U.S., U.K., and EU, helping providers with patient counseling, clinical analysis, and business analytics, including the provision of customer relationship management tools. The Univfy AI/ML platform is designed to support health plans and enterprise-level benefits programs, achieving cost savings through enhanced patient-centered care and value-oriented IVF services. The technology and products offered by Univfy are protected by a comprehensive portfolio of intellectual property, including granted and pending patents and copyrights in the U.S. and worldwide.

Understanding Infertility and the IVF Market
Infertility is defined as the need for medical assistance to conceive a child. It affects approximately one in six individuals of reproductive age, translating to more than 200 million people globally, with about 7 to 10 million in the U.S., around 25 million in the EU, approximately 3 to 5 million in the U.K., and about 186 million in other countries. Each year, an estimated 4 million IVF cycles are performed worldwide, resulting in over 1 million babies. In the U.S., around 2% of babies born each year are conceived through IVF. While IVF is generally safe and effective, multiple cycles may be necessary, and significant barriers such as high costs, lack of insurance coverage, and no guarantee of success contribute to a low IVF utilization rate of about 3% in the U.S., making it challenging for patients with fertility issues to afford and access IVF services.

The estimates above are based on reports from the World Health Organization (WHO), the American Society for Reproductive Medicine (ASRM), RESOLVE: The National Infertility Association, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the European Society for Human Reproduction and Embryology (ESHRE), and additional sources. A complete list of references can be found here.

The global and U.S. IVF market has experienced substantial consolidation through private equity investment. The IVF market size is estimated to reach approximately $25 billion by 2023 and is projected to grow to about $44 billion by 2033, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.57% between 2024 and 2033 (Biospace, April 2024).

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