The landscape of international relations is set to evolve significantly with the upcoming 2024 US presidential election, particularly in the context of the Middle East. When Donald Trump assumed the presidency, expectations ran high for improved relations between the United States and Egypt, a country led by President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, whom Trump once referred to as his "favorite dictator." This comment reflected a broader alignment in values, particularly Trumps transactional approach to foreign policy.

Trumps initial term coincided with heightened tensions in the region, yet it also saw a temporary ceasefire in Gaza between Israel and Hamas. This development was crucial for Egypt, which shares a border with Gaza and had been bearing the brunt of the humanitarian fallout, including a significant economic impact that was estimated at around $7 billion in lost revenue. Following the ceasefire, there were indications that Houthi militants would scale back their attacks on shipping through the Red Sea, suggesting that vital trade routes, including the Suez Canal, could be stabilized.

However, hopes for lasting peace were dashed when Israel reignited hostilities in Gaza last month. The situation continued to escalate when the Houthis resumed strikes, further complicating the situation and adding to the volatility in the Red Sea region. Trumps controversial proposals during this time, which included suggestions to expel Gaza's 2.2 million residents into neighboring Jordan and Egypt, have placed Sisi in an extraordinarily precarious position. These proposals pose not only a moral dilemma but also a serious threat to regional stability.

As Sisi navigates this complex landscape, he is faced with the challenge of maintaining a delicate balance. He must avoid antagonizing the unpredictable nature of Trump while simultaneously spearheading diplomatic efforts to forge a viable peace plan for Gaza. According to Mirette Mabrouk, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, Sisi has been adept at managing these tensions: "He has been playing his hand very, very carefully. At the end of the day, President Trump has a way of upending the normal rules."

Egypt has historically relied on US support, receiving an annual military aid package of $1.3 billion. This assistance has been crucial for Egypt, especially after securing an $8 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) last year, which helped avert a potential economic crisis. While relations between Cairo and Washington had deteriorated during President Barack Obama's administration, they saw a significant thaw during Trumps presidency. Sisi, a former general who came to power following a military coup against an Islamist president in 2013, was invited to the White House on two occasions, further solidifying this newfound partnership.

However, the prospect of executing Trumps audacious plan to relocate Gaza's population and transform the territory into what he envisioned as the Riviera of the Middle East is a formidable challenge for any Arab leader. Analysts warn that should Sisi appear to align with such a plan, he risks being perceived as a traitor by the Palestinian cause, a move that could provoke widespread dissent and instability within Egypt. The assassination of former Egyptian president Anwar Sadat in 1981, driven by outrage over normalized relations with Israel, serves as a stark reminder of the potential dangers Sisi faces.

Despite these challenges, both Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have remained steadfast in their positions. At a recent meeting in the White House, Trump reiterated his belief that Gaza, which he referred to as an "incredible piece of important real estate," should come under US control, underscoring the administration's aggressive posture.

Sisi's concerns about the ongoing conflict are compounded by the fear that Israel's ultimate objective may be to forcibly relocate Palestinian residents into Egypts Sinai Peninsula. Currently, two-thirds of Gaza is under evacuation orders, and Israel has imposed a blockade on aid since early March, raising alarms that hunger is being weaponized against the population. Netanyahus comments at the White House highlighted a strategy he claimed was not about trapping Gazans but rather providing them with options, which the Egyptian government strongly opposes.

The dire humanitarian conditions in Gaza, exacerbated by Israels military actions and blockade, have led analysts like Michael Wahid Hanna at the International Crisis Group to speculate that the displacement of Gazans is a central element of Israels strategy. "If you look at the discourse in Washington, combined with the ground realities in Gaza, it becomes difficult to dismiss the notion that transfer and depopulation are not at the heart of this situation," he remarked.

While Sisi has not publicly criticized Trumps policies, he has stated his commitment to not partake in any actions that would be unjust to the Palestinian people. In an effort to maintain diplomatic relations, he has even praised Trump for potentially achieving a just and lasting peace in the Middle East, despite widespread condemnation of the proposed population transfer.

Instead of capitulating to the pressure of facilitating a mass relocation, Sisi has sought to rally international support for a different approach aimed at rebuilding Gaza while allowing Palestinians to remain in their homeland. This initiative has garnered some backing from the Arab League and conditional support from the European Union, which would involve a committee of Palestinian technocrats managing the reconstruction process, effectively sidelining Hamas and empowering the Palestinian Authority, which governs parts of the West Bank.

However, this plan has not been well received in Washington or Tel Aviv, as it fails to address the critical need to disarm Hamas and ensure their removal from Gaza, something that would be seen as collaboration with Israel's occupation by many in the Arab world. "Egypt acknowledges the limitations of this proposal but cannot progress without broader diplomatic backing on the key issues," Hanna noted.

Furthermore, Sisi is acutely aware of the potential repercussions of defying Trump. In February, the US president hinted at the possibility of cutting military aid to Egypt and Jordan if their leaders did not comply with his demands. Although Trump later seemed to soften his stance, the underlying tension remains, with US officials indicating that clear expectations of Egypts cooperation must be established moving forward.

Despite the high stakes involved, analysts like Mabrouk maintain that the dangers of agreeing to facilitate the resettlement of Palestinians far outweigh any perceived benefits. "The Egyptians are not going to knuckle under, because there is nothing that the US can impose that would be worse than agreeing to the depopulation of Gaza," she concluded.