In her weekly newsletter, Roula Khalaf, the esteemed editor of the Financial Times, highlights some of the most compelling stories of the week, including the political maneuvers of Canada's Conservative party leader, Pierre Poilievre.

Poilievre has established a reputation for his combative approach to politics, often characterized as being in a constant state of attack. At a recent rally held in Brampton, just outside Toronto, he proposed a controversial three strikes and youre out law aimed at imposing life sentences on serious offenders. This proposal was met with enthusiastic applause from an audience of approximately a thousand supporters. Hug-a-thug, catch-and-release policies have destroyed our once-safe towns and cities, he declared, emphasizing that only Conservative leadership could effectively address the escalating issue of violent crime in Canada.

The sentiment expressed by Poilievre resonates particularly with constituents like Paul and Shara Micucci, who believe that crime represents the most pressing issue facing Canada today. Crime is the biggest issue in Canada and, quite frankly, the crime ties to the immigration policy, ties to the housing policy. Its all one bundle, Paul Micucci voiced, illustrating the interconnected nature of these societal concerns.

However, Poilievre faces a substantial challenge: his rhetoric, while galvanizing for certain voter segments, is also divisive and risks alienating centrist or undecided voters, especially during an election season heavily influenced by external factors such as the policies of U.S. President Donald Trump. With Canadas general election just over a week away, Poilievre has seen a dramatic shift in public opinion, losing a significant 25-point lead and trailing behind the Liberal Party led by Mark Carney in all major opinion polls.

Tim Powers, a political strategist based in Ottawa, succinctly describes Poilievres political philosophy as one of aggression: Take no prisoners, cede no ground, forcefully argue every position. Do not take a step back. Powers further notes that Poilievres approach is unyielding; he remains focused on attacking the Liberal Party and has yet to adopt a more multifaceted political persona.

Since ascending to the role of opposition leader in September 2022, 45-year-old Poilievre has tapped into the rising anger among Canadians, particularly regarding what he terms the lost Liberal decade under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. A significant part of this strategy has involved courting far-right sentiments, as evidenced by his support for the Freedom Convoy of anti-lockdown protesters, which occupied Ottawa for three weeks in January 2022. He has skillfully channeled growing frustrations over inflation, high housing costs, and concerns about pandemic-related restrictions, while his base continues to express unease over immigration and dissatisfaction with the sluggish post-pandemic economic recovery.

Yet, Poilievre's focus on domestic issues is increasingly overshadowed by the looming threat posed by Trumps tariffs on Canadas economy, coupled with concerns about the U.S. presidents ambitions to integrate Canada more closely with the United States. With Trudeau absent from the political landscape, Poilievres campaign has struggled to find a suitable target to blame for current challenges.

Mark Bourrie, an Ottawa-based author and political commentator, argues that Poilievre's Canada is broken messaging is falling flat, particularly among female voters. He hasnt been able to change gears; he is still talking like it is 2024, Bourrie noted, indicating a disconnect between Poilievres narrative and the evolving political landscape.

Poilievres aggressive political style, characterized by criticisms of woke ideology and commitments to defund the national public broadcaster, the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC), aligns him closely with the rhetoric of the American Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement. However, this association is proving increasingly detrimental among Canadian voters who may be wary of such polarizing figures.

He is driven by anger. He is going to get the people who made him feel this way, Bourrie commented, pointing out that Poilievre seems to be responding to perceived injustices from media outlets like the CBC, as well as from what he sees as an elite, eastern establishment that has neglected the west.

Interestingly, the Conservative party has not responded to inquiries seeking their perspective on Poilievres campaign challenges.

In March, the Liberal Party appointed Mark Carney as Trudeau's successor. Upon taking office, Carney promptly eliminated the contentious carbon tax, which had been one of Poilievre's primary criticisms of the Liberal government, thereby complicating his campaign strategy further.

Carney, who previously served as governor of both the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada, has positioned himself as a stabilizing force in stark contrast to Trumps chaotic governance and the economic turmoil brought about by tariffs. Carney is boring, and his stable disposition is the Valium for Trumps pomposity, Powers commented, suggesting that Poilievre finds himself in a politically constricted space as a result of Carneys calm approach.

To counterbalance Carneys economic credentials, Poilievre has endorsed cryptocurrency, proposed tax cuts, and advocated for expedited development of new pipelines and liquefied natural gas projects aimed at significantly boosting Canadas oil and gas exports. Andrew Leach, an economist at the University of Alberta, remarked, Poilievre is presenting a view where all of these projects are just common sense and should have gone aheadif it wasnt for the Trudeau government.

However, Leach also noted that while Poilievres push to reduce bureaucratic red tape could be beneficial, it overlooks critical elements such as regional politics, the necessity for indigenous consultation and consent, as well as market dynamics like fluctuating commodity prices and foreign exchange rates.

Despite the challenges ahead, some senior Conservatives express optimism that the enthusiasm among their supporters, particularly among young men, could propel Poilievre to victory in the upcoming election. Former Alberta premier Jason Kenney claims Poilievre is experiencing historic high levels of support, suggesting that attendance at rallies and fundraising efforts indicate a highly energized Conservative base.

In the wake of Trump's election, Poilievre has made attempts to distance himself from American right-wing figures, though past endorsements from high-profile figures like billionaire Elon Musk and podcaster Joe Rogan have become more of a liability than an asset. Additionally, comments made by Danielle Smith, the Conservative premier of Alberta, have raised eyebrows; she revealed that she had lobbied Trump to lift U.S. tariffs on Canada to aid Poilievre, reinforcing the perception that he is closely aligned with the American administration.

Even within his own party, Poilievre has faced criticism for failing to adeptly pivot his campaign in light of Trumps influence. Senior Conservative leaders have placed responsibility for this shortcoming on campaign manager Jenni Byrne, a veteran operator who also happens to be Poilievres former partner. Ontario Premier Doug Ford, a prominent Conservative figure, defended Kory Teneycke, his ex-election manager, who publicly accused Poilievres team of committing campaign malpractice for squandering their once-commanding lead.

In an unexpected twist, rather than rallying behind Poilievre during this pivotal moment, Ford opted to turn the tables and criticize him using his own tactics. Sometimes the truth hurts, Ford remarked, underscoring the growing tensions within the Conservative party as the election draws near.