CTVNews.ca will have exclusive polling data each morning throughout the federal election campaign. Check back each morning to see the latest from a three-day rolling sample by Nanos Research - CTV News and the Globe and Mail’s official pollster. The Liberals have an eight-point advantage over the Conservatives on Day 30 of the 36-day federal election campaign. A three-day rolling sample by Nanos Research conducted on April 17, 19 and 20 has the Liberals at 44 per cent over the Conservatives, who are at 36 per cent nationally. Nanos ballot as of April 21, 2025 (Nanos Research) The New Democratic Party is at 11 per cent, followed by the Bloc Quebecois (six per cent), Green Party of Canada (three per cent) and the People’s Party of Canada (one per cent). Nik Nanos, official pollster for CTV News and the Globe and Mail, says support for the NDP nationally “is now at levels similar to the first nightly tracking report.” This is after the NDP spent most of the election campaign in single digits. Regional support Regionally, Liberals are ahead everywhere except the Prairies, where the Conservatives remain dominant. In Ontario, the Liberals have a 10-point advantage in the rolling sample and are at 47 per cent versus the Conservatives at 37 per cent. The NDP went up a few points over the long weekend and are at 12 per cent. The Liberals continue their lead in Quebec and are at 42 per cent compared with the Conservatives at 22. The Bloc Quebecois is in second place at 24 per cent. In the Prairies, the Conservatives remain far ahead with 54 per cent of those surveyed backing them, versus 35 per cent for the Liberals. The NDP is at 10 per cent. In B.C., the Liberals have risen several points and are at 46 while the Conservatives are down to 35. The NDP is at 16. The Liberal lead in the Atlantic region continues but it’s down while Conservatives have gone up. Liberals have 49 per cent support versus 37 per cent for the Conservatives. The NDP remain far behind in the region at 10 per cent. Who is preferred prime minister? When it comes to whom Canadians prefer as prime minister, Liberal Leader Mark Carney has a 14-point advantage, with 47 per cent choosing him over Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who sits at 33 per cent. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh remains a distant third at six per cent. Nanos preferred PM as of April 21, 2025 (Nanos Research) By gender and age A gender analysis of Nanos tracking shows women continue to be more likely to vote Liberal than men. Fifty per cent of women surveyed said they would support the Liberals, compared with 27 per cent who’d vote Conservative. Thirteen per cent of women back the NDP. Meanwhile, the number of men who said they would vote Liberal is at 38 per cent, compared with 45 for the Conservatives. Eight per cent of men surveyed would vote NDP. The Conservative advantage among voters under 35 continues with 43 per cent of those surveyed backing them versus 37 for the Liberals. Eleven per cent chose the NDP. Meanwhile, Conservatives have pulled ahead among those aged 35 to 54, at 43 per cent versus 37 per for the Liberals. Eleven per cent would vote NDP. The Liberals continue to do significantly better among older voters. Fifty-two per cent of those aged 55 and up said they would back the Liberals, versus 32 for the Conservatives. Seven per cent in that age category chose the NDP. Methodology CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos Research tracking survey, April 17 and 19 and 20, 2025, n=1,289, accurate 2.7 percentage points plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. Percentages are weighted to be representative of the population by age, gender and stratified by geography.