CTVNews.ca will have exclusive polling data each morning throughout the federal election campaign. Check back each morning to see the latest from a three-day rolling sample by Nanos Research - CTV News and the Globe and Mail’s official pollster. The Liberals have a six-point advantage over the Conservatives on Day 31 of the 36-day federal election campaign. A three-day rolling sample by Nanos Research conducted on April 19-21 has the Liberals at 43 per cent over the Conservatives, who are at 37 per cent nationally. “There are two key groups that are absolute toss-ups in the latest nightly tracking,“ said Nik Nanos, official pollster for CTV News and the Globe and Mail, “middle aged voters and voters in British Columbia.” Nanos ballot as of April 22, 2025 (Nanos Research) The New Democratic Party is at 10 per cent, followed by the Bloc Quebecois (six per cent), Green Party of Canada (three per cent) and the People’s Party of Canada (one per cent). “There has been some movement numerically from the Liberals to the NDP while Conservative support remains steady,” said Nanos. Regional support Regionally, Liberals are ahead in the Atlantic, Ontario and Quebec, while Conservatives remain dominant in the Prairies. B.C. is a dead heat. In Ontario, the Liberals have a 13-point advantage in the rolling sample and are at 49 per cent versus the Conservatives at 36 per cent. The NDP is at 11 per cent. The Liberals continue their lead in Quebec and are at 39 per cent compared with the Conservatives at 24. The Bloc Quebecois is in second place at 26 per cent. In the Prairies, the Conservatives remain far ahead with 57 per cent of those surveyed backing them, versus 31 for the Liberals. The NDP is at 10 per cent. In B.C., the Liberals and Conservatives are tied at 40 per cent each. The NDP is at 19. The Liberal lead in the Atlantic region remains strong at 53 per cent versus 31 per cent for the Conservatives. The NDP remain far behind in the region at nine per cent. Who is preferred prime minister? When it comes to whom Canadians prefer as prime minister, Liberal Leader Mark Carney has a 13-point advantage, with 47 per cent choosing him over Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who sits at 35 per cent. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh remains a distant third at six per cent. Nanos preferred PM as of April 22, 2025 (Nanos Research) By gender and age A gender analysis of Nanos tracking shows women continue to be more likely to vote Liberal than men. Forty-nine per cent of women surveyed said they would support the Liberals, compared with 29 per cent who’d vote Conservative. Twelve per cent of women back the NDP. Meanwhile, the number of men who said they would vote Liberal is at 36 per cent, compared with 46 for the Conservatives. Nine per cent of men surveyed would vote NDP. The Conservative advantage among voters under 35 continues with 40 per cent of those surveyed backing them versus 34 for the Liberals. Fifteen per cent chose the NDP. Meanwhile, it’s a dead heat among those aged 35 to 54, with Conservatives at 40 per cent versus 39 for the Liberals. Ten per cent would vote NDP. The Liberals continue to do significantly better among older voters. Fifty-two per cent of those aged 55 and up said they would back the Liberals, versus 32 for the Conservatives. Seven per cent in that age category chose the NDP. Methodology CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos Research tracking survey, April 19 to 21, 2025, n=1,308, accurate 2.7 percentage points plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. Percentages are weighted to be representative of the population by age, gender and stratified by geography.