There’s an old turn of phrase in Rome: “after a fat Pope, a thin pope”. In other words, even though Pope Francis packed the College of Cardinals with his own appointees, including a resounding majority of those who will elect him (about 80 per cent), there is no guarantee that the next pope will be a Francis Mini-Me. Francis, after all, was almost the opposite in style and substance from his predecessor, the shy, conservative intellectual, Benedict XV, and the cardinals who elected him in 2013 were mostly appointed by his conservative predecessors. So if you’re a betting person eyeing up the papabile cardinals, or likely candidates, I’d hedge those bets.