A senior correspondent at Vox, known for his insightful coverage of foreign policy and world affairs, sheds light on an increasingly complex situation unfolding in Yemen, where US military involvement is deepening. This correspondent authored the book, Invisible Countries: Journeys to the Edge of Nationhood, which dives into various border conflicts and the dynamics of unrecognized states.

A striking image from the Houthi Media Center captures the aftermath of US airstrikes on a fuel port in Ras Isa, Hodeidah, Yemen, on April 17, 2025. The video shows a tank truck engulfed in flames, a stark reminder of the escalating violence in the region. This footage was disseminated by Xinhua via Getty Images.

Former President Donald Trump has famously characterized Americas military engagements in the Middle East as the worst decision ever made, pledging to bring an end to what he termed endless wars. His administration made some strides towards this goal, including a significant troop reduction in Syria, a commitment that dates back to Trumps original term in office. Recently, there have also been indications that the US might consider reducing its involvement in the conflict in Ukraine, regardless of whether a formal resolution to the fighting is achieved.

However, while appearing to retreat from some engagements, the Trump administration has quietly embroiled US forces in a new and potentially protracted conflict in the Middle Eastone that bears the hallmarks of the very quagmire Trump sought to avoid.

On March 15, the US commenced a series of airstrikes, dubbed Operation Rough Rider, targeting the Houthisan Iran-backed militant group that has been launching attacks on commercial and military vessels in the Red Sea since the onset of the Gaza war in 2023.

The Houthis, members of a minority Shia Muslim sect based in northern Yemen, have a long history as a rebel faction. Their rebellion against the Yemeni government began in the 1990s, but they seized upon the political chaos following widespread protests in 2012 to take control of the capital, Sanaa, in 2014. Today, they still hold significant territory in Yemen, despite lacking international recognition as the legitimate government. The civil war that has ensued since their rise has pitted the Houthis against Yemen's internationally recognized government and a coalition led by Saudi Arabia, which receives backing from the United States. Following a UN-brokered ceasefire in 2022, there was a brief lull in hostilities, but the situation escalated dramatically after Hamass October 7, 2023, attacks and the subsequent war in Gaza. The Houthis began firing missiles and drones at Israel and disrupting shipping routes, positioning themselves as one of Irans most formidable proxies.

The Biden administration, alongside Israeli forces, has executed several strikes against the Houthis, but the current US military campaign dwarfs these efforts in scale. According to open-source data compiled by the Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute, there have been over 250 airstrikes to date. Reports indicate that these operations have resulted in the deaths of more than 500 Houthi fighters, including prominent leaders within the group. However, the Houthis have remained largely silent on their casualties. The Yemen Data Project, a monitoring organization, has noted over 200 civilian casualties attributed to the bombing campaigns in the first month alone, with a particularly devastating airstrike on an oil terminal recently claiming more than 74 lives.

US defense officials assert that the strikes have successfully targeted essential Houthi infrastructure, including command and control centers, weapon manufacturing sites, and advanced arms storage facilities. Peter Nguyen, director of strategic communications at the National Security Council, has stated that the Houthis are currently on the defensive, affirming that this is the first operation of such magnitude directed at Houthi forces.

Despite the administrations assertions of success, the conflict has garnered little public scrutiny, which is surprising given its extensive scale. While it is clear that the Houthis are suffering losses, their resources are widely dispersed and concealed, complicating targeted strikes. Mohammed al-Basha, a Yemeni defense analyst, has expressed skepticism about the efficacy of relying solely on air power to defeat the Houthis, citing the failures of a sustained Saudi-led air campaign that has spanned several years.

The stated objective of the US campaign is not to annihilate the Houthis but rather to compel them to cease their attacks on maritime vessels in the Red Sea. This aggressive posture was particularly provoked by the Houthis' increased aggression following Israel's military actions in Gaza. Trump emphasized the need for the Houthis to say no mas, or enough, as a prerequisite for halting the strikes. The Houthis had paused their attacks in early January during a ceasefire but resumed hostilities in March when Israel restricted aid to Gaza.

Thus far, the Red Sea has remained relatively calm since the initiation of Operation Rough Rider, but the Houthis have continued to fire missiles and drones at Israel. In a recent defiant address, Mahdi al-Mashat, the president of the Houthi-backed government, declared their resolve to continue fighting, insinuating that they are unfazed by the ongoing bombardment.

As concerns mount about the potential for the US to become embroiled in yet another Middle Eastern conflict, the resources allocated to this endeavor are considerable. The Pentagon has positioned a second aircraft carrier group in the region, complementing an existing naval presence. Additionally, at least two Patriot missile batteries and a THAAD missile defense systemone of the US military's most sophisticated assetshave been relocated from Asia to bolster defenses in the Middle East.

The airstrikes signify more than just a response to Houthi aggression; they also serve as a demonstration of military strength aimed at Iran, the Houthis' primary benefactor. Reports suggest that the US has expended $200 million in munitions within the first three weeks of the campaign, raising alarms among military officials about the potential depletion of stockpiles needed for other strategic commitments, such as a possible confrontation with China over Taiwan.

Despite aspirations among certain Trump administration officials, including Vice President JD Vance, to refocus US military efforts on Asia, the shift toward the Middle East appears contrary to those intentions. Observing the Houthis' continued aggression, the pressing question remains how long the US will sustain its military operations. A recent White House report to Congress indicated that the airstrikes would persist until the threat posed by the Houthis to US forces and navigational rights in the Red Sea abates. However, there are discussions within the administration about the possibility of scaling back these operations.

Analysts like Basha warn that if the Houthis are not effectively curtailed or weakened by the current campaign, they might seize the narrative, claiming victory over the US, which they could portray as an invincible military force. The implications of this are profound for regional stability and US credibility.

Shipping through the Red Sea has seen a slight uptick in activity recently, yet remains significantly below levels prior to the resurgence of Houthi attacks in October 2023. A lengthy period of stability will be necessary before shipping companiesand the insurers backing themfeel confident enough to resume operations without the elevated risks associated with the conflict.

Furthermore, the specter of deeper US involvement in the conflict looms large. The Obama administration's campaign against ISIS began with air operations before the need for ground troops and local allies arose, which frustrated efforts to diminish the US presence in the region.

Opposition factions within Yemen backed by international support are reportedly contemplating launching a ground campaign to eliminate the Houthi threat once and for all. While American troops participating directly in ground operations is considered unlikely by most analysts, even limited support for such actions would reflect a continuation of US involvement in a complex civil warsomething Trump has criticized prior administrations for allowing.

In conclusion, the ongoing airstrikes against the Houthis are not solely about countering the groups actions; they also represent a broader geopolitical strategy aimed at curbing Iranian influence in the region. As the Biden administration navigates negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program, the potential for military action remains on the table, especially if diplomatic efforts falter.