The latest issue of the Stanford Emerging Technology Review (SETR) provides a comprehensive examination of space technology, one of ten critical fields studied in this ongoing educational initiative. SETR is a project of the esteemed Hoover Institution and the Stanford School of Engineering, which leverages the expertise of Stanford Universitys leading science and engineering faculty to create an accessible reference tool designed specifically for policymakers. For those interested in delving deeper, the full report is available for download, and readers can subscribe for regular updates.

Space technology has firmly established its value to national interests, with several key applications that illustrate its significance:

• Navigation: Navigation technology encompasses positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT) services globally and in outer space. Systems like GPS and comparable services from other nations enable users to determine their location, speed, and direction, whether traveling over land, sea, or airand even in space.
• Communications: Satellites play a crucial role in providing communications to remote areas and mobile users, thus complementing terrestrial networks that handle the majority of long-distance communications. This connectivity is vital for various sectors, including emergency response and disaster management.
• Remote Sensing: Remote sensing satellites utilize their unique vantage point and advanced sensors to quickly gather extensive data about various regions and objects. This information is essential for environmental monitoring, agricultural planning, and disaster response.
• Scientific Research: Space-based astronomy and exploration offer profound insights into the origins of celestial bodies such as planets, stars, and galaxies, as well as the potential for life beyond Earth.
• Space Transportation: The commercial space transportation industry has experienced a dramatic drop in launch costsby more than an order of magnitude over the past two decades, reaching approximately $1,500 per kilogram in 2021. This cost reduction is pivotal for the growth of the space economy.
• National Security: Continuous monitoring of Earth through space assets is essential for national security, as it allows for the detection of missile launches, nuclear weapons explosions, and general military movements of both allies and adversaries.

The space sector is undergoing a significant transformation, shifting from traditional government-owned systems with lengthy development timelines to a burgeoning NewSpace economy dominated by private companies. This transition is making space technologies more accessible and economically viable. Governments are beginning to adopt small spacecraft and on-demand launches, enhancing space capabilities in a more cost-effective manner.

However, the rapid rise of the private sector in space exploration brings forth various challenges. These include managing the risks associated with dual-use technologieswhich can serve both civilian and military purposesand navigating the blurred lines between private enterprises, the broader space sector, and government interests. Moreover, there is a critical need to distinguish between accidents and potential malicious actions, alongside reliance on private companies whose goals may not always align with those of the government.

Glimpses of Future Developments

The potential of space extends far beyond current applications. For specific manufacturing processes, such as the production of specialized pharmaceuticals, optics, and semiconductors, space offers distinct advantages. The vacuum of space presents an exceptionally clean environment that minimizes contamination, while microgravity conditions reduce the effects of gravitythus facilitating the creation of purer materials and more precise shapes. This could revolutionize production processes in biological materials, medicines, polymers, and electronics.

Moreover, celestial bodies like the moon and asteroids are believed to harbor extensive deposits of valuable minerals that are difficult to find or extract on Earth. This includes rare-earth elements critical for batteries, catalytic converters, and defense technologies. Additionally, helium-3, which is abundant on the moon, poses potential as a fuel source for nuclear fusion, offering a sustainable energy solution for the future. Future space mining operations could enable the return of these resources to Earth, addressing the increasing demand in an eco-friendly manner.

In the vastness of space, certain orbits receive uninterrupted sunlight, presenting opportunities for space-based power generation to meet clean energy needs. The advent of high-quality imagery and data from space-based assetslargely propelled by private companieswill significantly enhance open-source intelligence, providing vital information to data analysts.

As spacecraft venture beyond the Suns reach, they will require innovative power sources, such as nuclear-driven technologies, to sustain their missions. Furthermore, advancements in propulsion systems will be crucial for intercepting interstellar objects and collecting samples.

Governance Challenges

Despite the rapid advancements in space technology, the development of international and national governance frameworks has not kept pace. Many existing legal structures, products of the Cold War era, fail to adequately address contemporary activities in space and are often contested in their interpretations. Efforts to modernize these regulations have frequently stalled due to divergent geopolitical interests. In the United States, despite the critical role of space assets, they are not designated as critical infrastructure, and the growth of space activity has outstripped the capabilities of current regulatory processes overseen by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the Federal Communications Commission (FCC).

Nevertheless, several noteworthy developments have occurred recently. For instance, NASA has unveiled its strategy for sustainable space activities in Earth orbit, outlining actionable objectives, with plans to extend similar strategies to activities in cislunar space and deep space exploration. Additionally, the FCC imposed its first fine on a satellite for improper disposal from geostationary orbit. It is crucial that these short-term policy advancements align with a long-term vision that encompasses the next fifty to one hundred years to adequately address national security needs and support the burgeoning space industry while promoting the responsible use of space as a shared resource.

The proliferation of objects in space has escalated dramatically, with nearly 30,000 tracked objects larger than 10 centimeters and around 10,000 operational satellites. Additionally, there are an estimated 1.1 million smaller fragments ranging from 1 to 10 centimeters. This increasing density raises the likelihood of collisions, which could create more debris and lead to catastrophic scenarios such as the Kessler syndrome, potentially blocking access to space altogether. Furthermore, the growing volume of space traffic complicates communication channels and orbit planning, necessitating new domestic safety legislation and enhanced international cooperation.

Geopolitical tensions also pose significant challenges in the realm of space governance. The Outer Space Treaty (OST) is facing erosion, as evidenced by recent geopolitical maneuvers; for instance, in 2024, Russia vetoed a UN resolution aimed at preventing nuclear weapon deployment in space. U.S. officials have expressed concerns regarding Russia's potential development of a satellite designed to carry nuclear weapons into low Earth orbit, raising alarms about the future of satellite activity and security.

Moreover, there is currently no treaty that restricts military uses of space, including the deployment of conventional weapons in orbit. Given that space capabilities are integral to modern military operations, these assets may become targets for adversarial counterspace threats. To date, four nationsChina, Russia, India, and the United Stateshave successfully tested antisatellite weapons capable of destroying satellites in space, while others are developing methods to degrade and disrupt the satellite operations of rival nations through cyberattacks and non-kinetic means.

As nations engage in a new race to the moon, their objectives differ markedly from those of the 1960s. While prestige remains a factor, this modern race is driven by the desire to establish a strategic and economic lunar presence. Countries such as Russia and China are actively pursuing permanent lunar bases. The first nation to achieve this may gain a significant first-mover advantage, positioning itself to dictate terms for others seeking to join. Although the OST prohibits claims of lunar sovereignty, there is growing concern that nations may override these regulations in pursuit of their national interests, heightening the potential for conflict in this evolving arena of space exploration.