In a revealing new survey conducted by the European Central Bank (ECB), it has become evident that President Donald Trump's tariffs on trade may significantly influence the purchasing habits of European consumers. As tensions rise between the United States and Europe regarding trade practices, the ECB's findings underscore a concerning trend for American brands in the European market.

The ECB's March Consumer Expectations survey, which surveyed approximately 19,000 individuals across Europe, explored consumer behaviors in response to hypothetical tariffs of 5%, 10%, or 20% on US goods. The results were striking: across all scenarios presented, respondents demonstrated a high degree of willingness to consider non-US alternatives, with a median substitution score reaching an impressive 80 out of 100. This score indicates a strong inclination to switch to products and services not originating from the United States.

Interestingly, the survey revealed that nearly 44% of participants cited their preference for non-US products as the main driving factor behind their decision to abandon American goods. This group displayed an even more pronounced median substitution score of 95, showing that the motivation to switch was less about price sensitivity and more about personal preference. Remarkably, higher-income households emerged as the most likely to pivot away from US products, suggesting that their purchasing decisions are increasingly influenced by considerations beyond mere cost.

The ECB blog post that accompanied the survey results commented on this phenomenon, stating, It seems that the mere presence of a tariff would prompt a large share of consumers to reconsider what they buy, and further warned that such trends might indicate a potential long-term structural shift in consumer preferences moving away from US products and brands.

This survey comes on the heels of President Trump's controversial announcement of a baseline 20% tariff on a wide array of trading partners, which notably includes member states of the European Union. In retaliation, the EU quickly implemented 25% tariffs on US goods, although this response was temporarily mitigated when Trump agreed to reduce the tariff on European imports to 10% until July, resulting in a 90-day pause on the EU's retaliatory measures.

Despite this temporary alleviation, European officials remain vigilant and are currently evaluating longer-term strategies to counteract the impact of US tariffs. Discussions among over two dozen officials from Europe and Canada have proposed alternatives, including seeking different defense suppliers, establishing stronger counter-tariffs, and reducing reliance on US technology and intellectual property protections.

Meanwhile, American brands are already beginning to feel the effects of these trade tensions. Notably, Tesla has reported a staggering 42% drop in sales within Europe during the first two months of 2025. Other sectors, including US whiskey exports and travel to the United States, are also experiencing consumer boycotts as European buyers reevaluate their spending choices in the face of rising tariffs.